TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13092780
Played Sep 7Finished
Oldrich Vaclahovsky
Home
1.68
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
71113111191210––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.99
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeOldrich Vaclahovsky to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOldrich Vaclahovsky above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 84 set 4, 12-10 — our read held Oldrich Vaclahovsky at 57.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Oldrich Vaclahovsky 2–0 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 2h before this match
Vaclahovsky beat Jr 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 13:09What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Vaclahovsky
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Vaclahovsky 1432 vs Jr 1309
Vaclahovsky
Correct
both rated, 123 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Vaclahovsky 80% vs Jr 60%
Vaclahovsky
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Vaclahovsky 80% vs Jr 40%
Vaclahovsky
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Vaclahovsky +3 · Jr -1
Vaclahovsky
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Vaclahovsky)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vaclahovsky form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVaclahovsky 1.68 / Jr 1.99
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Vaclahovsky)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13092780
Vaclahovsky1.68
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite48% won 31 of 65
Up 2–0, closes it93% 14 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it77% 23 of 30
Jr1.99
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 83 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeVaclahovsky2wins
AwayJr0wins
Vaclahovsky leads 2–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricVaclahovskyJrV − JBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.032.5+5.5per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVaclahovskyJrBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 249 vs 229 / 43547%52.6%117 / 249 vs 229 / 435Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.140.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VaclahovskyVaclahovsky 1.68/Jr 1.99
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Vaclahovsky · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Vaclahovsky won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WSep 7 · 13:15O. Vaclahovsky—71311123L. Jr—11119101
WSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky—1111113L. Jr—6990
O. Vaclahovsky10
WSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 10:45O. Vaclahovsky2.2511118113T. Slivka1.57541131WSep 7 · 09:45O. Vaclahovsky1.80118119133P. Chvojka1.91411811112LSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192WSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113WSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113WSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762LSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871
L. Jr10
LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 7 · 10:15L. Jr2.001211811113T. Slivka1.7314611792WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113
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