TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089660
Played Sep 7Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1214116811117119
Tadeas Slivka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 56.6% is still 56.6%
Graded at full timeTadeas Slivka to win
56.6%
56.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Tadeas Slivka below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 100 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Tadeas Slivka at 56.6%
100 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 4–4 Tadeas Slivka Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slivka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1318 vs Slivka 1352
Slivka
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 20% vs Slivka 40%
Slivka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 40% vs Slivka 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr +1 · Slivka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Slivka) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slivka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Slivka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Slivka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13089660
Jr2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 83 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Slivka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
10%takes the first set · 1 of 10
As favourite50% won 20 of 40
Up 2–0, closes it86% 6 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it64% 14 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwaySlivka4wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%2 of 4
AwaySlivka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S2Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S3Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S4Jr1Slivka5n = 6Slivka took 5 of 6
S5Jr3Slivka1n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricJrSlivkaJ − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.238.2+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSlivkaBasisWin rate · lifetime227 / 431 vs 64 / 12952.7%49.6%227 / 431 vs 64 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.438.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlivkaJr 2.00/Slivka 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Slivka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr—119981T. Slivka—71111113
LAug 5 · 13:20L. Jr—79110T. Slivka—1111133
LAug 5 · 10:45L. Jr—11711392T. Slivka—511511113
WJul 14 · 14:15L. Jr—811911113T. Slivka—11911772
WJun 8 · 15:15L. Jr—1111910113T. Slivka—75111252
WJun 4 · 13:40L. Jr—1111113T. Slivka—3520
LJun 2 · 13:10L. Jr—751181T. Slivka—11118113
WJun 2 · 10:15L. Jr—10111113143T. Slivka—127615122
L. Jr10
LSep 7 · 11:45O. Vaclahovsky2.101111113L. Jr1.676990WSep 7 · 11:15P. Chvojka1.67812881L. Jr2.10111011113WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192
T. Slivka10
LSep 7 · 10:45O. Vaclahovsky2.2511118113T. Slivka1.57541131WSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113LSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113
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