TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12464421
Played Aug 20Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
117911911811––
Tadeas Slivka
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeTadeas Slivka to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Tadeas Slivka below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 77 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Tadeas Slivka at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 4–4 Tadeas Slivka Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:50What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slivka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1352 vs Slivka 1357
Slivka
Correct
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Slivka 20%
Jr
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Slivka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Slivka +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Slivka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slivka form (20%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.00 / Slivka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Slivka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12464421
Jr2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 73 of 137
Down 0–1, comes back43% 26 of 61
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Slivka1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite48% won 23 of 48
Up 2–0, closes it89% 8 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it65% 17 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwaySlivka4wins
4 of 8 to a deciderLevel at 4–4, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr50%2 of 4
AwaySlivka50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S2Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S3Jr4Slivka4n = 8split evenly
S4Jr1Slivka5n = 6Slivka took 5 of 6
S5Jr3Slivka1n = 4Jr took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home338%
2–3Decider, away113%
1–3Four sets, away225%
0–3Straight, away113%
These 8 meetings
MetricJrSlivkaJ − SBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match41.238.2+3.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSlivkaBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 395 vs 62 / 12553.2%49.6%210 / 395 vs 62 / 125Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.638.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlivkaJr 2.00/Slivka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Slivka · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Slivka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr—119981T. Slivka—71111113
LAug 5 · 13:20L. Jr—79110T. Slivka—1111133
LAug 5 · 10:45L. Jr—11711392T. Slivka—511511113
WJul 14 · 14:15L. Jr—811911113T. Slivka—11911772
WJun 8 · 15:15L. Jr—1111910113T. Slivka—75111252
WJun 4 · 13:40L. Jr—1111113T. Slivka—3520
LJun 2 · 13:10L. Jr—751181T. Slivka—11118113
WJun 2 · 10:15L. Jr—10111113143T. Slivka—127615122
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
T. Slivka10
LSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113LAug 19 · 11:40T. Slivka1.801011331D. Stefek1.9112911113LAug 19 · 10:40T. Slivka1.7311811572P. Sturma2.00611911113WAug 19 · 09:40T. Slivka1.801111113M. Sobota1.917680
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