TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457483
Played Aug 19Finished
Tadeas Slivka
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 8Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 8
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116118––––
Martin Sobota
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 58.5% is still 58.5%
Graded at full timeTadeas Slivka to win
58.5%
58.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTadeas Slivka above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-8
Point 54 set 3, 11-8 — our read held Tadeas Slivka at 58.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Slivka 1–1 Martin Sobota Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:42What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Slivka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Slivka 1386 vs Sobota 1354
Slivka
Correct
both rated, 32 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slivka 100% vs Sobota 80%
Slivka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slivka 80% vs Sobota 40%
Slivka
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slivka +5 · Sobota +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Slivka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlivka 1.80 / Sobota 1.91
Signal prob.59% / 42%
Edge (Slivka)+7.0pp
TT Cup · #12457483
Slivka1.80
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 8
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Sobota1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 34 of 74
Down 0–1, comes back22% 8 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSlivka1wins
AwaySobota1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSlivkaSobotaSlivka − SobotaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match46.542.0+4.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlivkaSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 117 vs 67 / 15450.4%43.5%59 / 117 vs 67 / 154Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlivkaSlivka 1.80/Sobota 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.5%
Slivka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Slivka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 14 · 16:55T. Slivka—11118113M. Sobota—671151
LJul 14 · 16:15T. Slivka—1210121082M. Sobota—10121012113
T. Slivka10
LSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113LAug 19 · 11:40T. Slivka1.801011331D. Stefek1.9112911113LAug 19 · 10:40T. Slivka1.7311811572P. Sturma2.00611911113
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113
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