TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13089632
Played Sep 7Finished
Tadeas Slivka
Home
3.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
911311911––––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
1.30
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:50 and never touched — 70.7% is still 70.7%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
70.7%
70.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTadeas Slivka above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 70.7%
54 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Slivka 2–7 Filip Mandrysz Tadeas Slivka has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:50What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.30 (72%)
Mandrysz
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-7 in 9
Mandrysz
Correct
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slivka 1355 vs Mandrysz 1338
Slivka
Wrong
both rated, 18 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slivka 60% vs Mandrysz 40%
Slivka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slivka 40% vs Mandrysz 60%
Mandrysz
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slivka -1 · Mandrysz -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 74% — Strong (leans Mandrysz) · live re-read · sealed at 71% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (40%) is below what odds imply (77%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlivka 3.40 / Mandrysz 1.30
Signal prob.27% / 74%
Edge (Mandrysz)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13089632
Slivka3.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog39% won 11 of 28
Down 0–1, comes back24% 4 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back23% 3 of 13
Mandrysz1.30
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite58% won 77 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it95% 38 of 40
Up 1–0, closes it73% 53 of 73
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSlivka2wins
AwayMandrysz7wins
1 of 9 to a deciderMandrysz leads 7–2, and 1 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlivkan = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayMandrysz85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slivka2Mandrysz7n = 9Mandrysz took 7 of 9
S2Slivka3Mandrysz6n = 9Mandrysz took 6 of 9
S3Slivka3Mandrysz6n = 9Mandrysz took 6 of 9
S4Slivka0Mandrysz4n = 4Mandrysz took 4 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home111%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home111%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away333%
0–3Straight, away444%
These 9 meetings
MetricSlivkaMandryszS − MBasisWins27−5in 9 meetingsFirst set27−5of 9Avg pointsper match28.736.8−8.1per matchSweeps14−33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlivkaMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime63 / 127 vs 215 / 42749.6%50.4%63 / 127 vs 215 / 427Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.337.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszSlivka 3.40/Mandrysz 1.30
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.5%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Mandrysz won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
LJul 27 · 08:45T. Slivka—9510F. Mandrysz—1111113
LJul 27 · 08:15T. Slivka—7470F. Mandrysz—1111113
LJul 20 · 09:15T. Slivka—91290F. Mandrysz—1114113
LJul 20 · 06:45T. Slivka—531181F. Mandrysz—11116113
LMay 6 · 09:20T. Slivka—1118101F. Mandrysz—91111123
WMay 6 · 08:10T. Slivka—1211113F. Mandrysz—10690
LApr 2 · 07:45T. Slivka—1311971F. Mandrysz—15711113
LFeb 18 · 13:10T. Slivka—5460F. Mandrysz—1111113
WDec 5 · 08:15T. Slivka—1211114113F. Mandrysz—14671172
T. Slivka10
WSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113LAug 19 · 11:40T. Slivka1.801011331D. Stefek1.9112911113LAug 19 · 10:40T. Slivka1.7311811572P. Sturma2.00611911113
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 08:44F. Mandrysz1.28910111192T. Slivka3.50111269113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113
Upcoming Matches
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F. Mandrysz
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