TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12457468
Played Aug 19Finished
Tadeas Slivka
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 9Form at publish
9–1Last 10Won last 9
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116811119511711
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:41 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeTadeas Slivka to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingTadeas Slivka above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 7-11
Point 90 set 5, 7-11 — our read held Tadeas Slivka at 61.7%
90 points played in total.
H2H Tadeas Slivka 12–9 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 9 of their 21 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:41What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Slivka
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-9 in 21
Slivka
Wrong
gap of 3 in 21, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Slivka 1399 vs Sturma 1311
Slivka
Wrong
both rated, 88 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Slivka 100% vs Sturma 40%
Slivka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Slivka 90% vs Sturma 30%
Slivka
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Slivka +5 · Sturma -2
Slivka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Slivka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Slivka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSlivka 1.73 / Sturma 2.00
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Slivka)+1.0pp
TT Cup · #12457468
Slivka1.73
90%won 9 of 10 · last 10
Won last 9
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite50% won 22 of 44
Up 2–0, closes it88% 7 of 8
Up 1–0, closes it67% 16 of 24
Sturma2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 133 of 272
Down 0–1, comes back39% 52 of 134
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSlivka6wins
AwaySturma4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderSlivka leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSlivka83.3%5 of 6
AwaySturma75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Slivka6Sturma4n = 10Slivka took 6 of 10
S2Slivka4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Slivka3Sturma7n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Slivka6Sturma3n = 9Slivka took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSlivkaSturmaSlivka − SturmaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match37.638.1−0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSlivkaSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime60 / 118 vs 384 / 78950.9%48.7%60 / 118 vs 384 / 789Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.339.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SlivkaSlivka 1.73/Sturma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Slivka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 5 · 10:15T. Slivka—119613113P. Sturma—511111112
WJul 31 · 08:10T. Slivka—11113113P. Sturma—961171
WJul 16 · 06:15T. Slivka—811911113P. Sturma—11511882
WJul 7 · 09:20T. Slivka—111013113P. Sturma—8121191
LJul 7 · 05:45T. Slivka—1011551P. Sturma—12811113
LJun 11 · 12:10T. Slivka—11410151P. Sturma—91112173
WJun 8 · 16:15T. Slivka—14711113P. Sturma—1211351
LJun 4 · 15:40T. Slivka—6660P. Sturma—1111113
WJun 2 · 11:45T. Slivka—11113113P. Sturma—781131
LApr 29 · 15:45T. Slivka—441181P. Sturma—11119113
T. Slivka10
LSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113LAug 20 · 17:10D. Stefek1.571311113T. Slivka2.2511660WAug 20 · 15:40L. Jr2.00119981T. Slivka1.7371111113WAug 20 · 15:10R. Zajac2.75116111082T. Slivka1.40811912113LAug 20 · 14:10T. Slivka2.00551761D. Stefek1.73111115113LAug 19 · 12:43T. Slivka1.50971681M. Sobota2.50111114113LAug 19 · 11:40T. Slivka1.801011331D. Stefek1.9112911113WAug 19 · 09:40T. Slivka1.801111113M. Sobota1.917680
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
Upcoming Matches
T. Slivka
P. Sturma
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