TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13061649
Played Sep 2Finished
Patrik Sturma
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
5111146111181412
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 24:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Chovancik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Sturma above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 93 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Zdenek Chovancik at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Sturma 6–7 Zdenek Chovancik Patrik Sturma has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 24:13What took a side0 for · 4 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-7 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sturma 1402 vs Chovancik 1287
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 115 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sturma 80% vs Chovancik 60%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sturma 70% vs Chovancik 50%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sturma +1 · Chovancik +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
0 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSturma 1.73 / Chovancik 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sturma)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13061649
Sturma1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite46% won 80 of 173
Up 2–0, closes it86% 30 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it53% 47 of 89
Chovancik2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSturma5wins
AwayChovancik5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSturma80%4 of 5
AwayChovancik80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sturma5Chovancik5n = 10split evenly
S2Sturma6Chovancik4n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Sturma7Chovancik3n = 10Sturma took 7 of 10
S4Sturma4Chovancik3n = 7Sturma took 4 of 7
S5Sturma1Chovancik3n = 4Chovancik took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSturmaChovancikS − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.237.9+1.3per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSturmaChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime404 / 827 vs 28 / 7548.9%37.3%404 / 827 vs 28 / 75Avg sets wonper match2.11.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaSturma 1.73/Chovancik 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma—511611143Z. Chovancik—114118122
LJul 10 · 08:45P. Sturma—681171Z. Chovancik—11116113
LJul 10 · 07:10P. Sturma—11691152Z. Chovancik—911118113
WJun 23 · 10:15P. Sturma—1111113Z. Chovancik—7870
WFeb 6 · 12:45P. Sturma—1213113Z. Chovancik—101110
WFeb 2 · 17:46P. Sturma—11613123Z. Chovancik—61111101
LFeb 2 · 16:40P. Sturma—911212102Z. Chovancik—1161110123
WJan 30 · 11:10P. Sturma—1111113Z. Chovancik—7750
LJan 9 · 09:15P. Sturma—1081181Z. Chovancik—12118113
LJan 5 · 17:50P. Sturma—91112772Z. Chovancik—1181011113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690WAug 17 · 06:15R. Zajac1.83871191Z. Chovancik1.8311115113WJul 13 · 08:40L. Snr1.44116971Z. Chovancik2.6011111113LJul 13 · 08:10Z. Chovancik2.25611651L. Snr1.5811711113LJul 13 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.55111111113Z. Chovancik2.35871391
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