TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13060488
Played Sep 2Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
91111513151012––
Zdenek Chovancik
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:33 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Zdenek Chovancik below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 13-15
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 86 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 55.8%
86 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 4–3 Zdenek Chovancik Zdenek Chovancik has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:33What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Mandrysz
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-3 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1315 vs Chovancik 1282
Mandrysz
Wrong
both rated, 33 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 80% vs Chovancik 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 50% vs Chovancik 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz +1 · Chovancik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Mandrysz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chovancik form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.67 / Chovancik 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Mandrysz)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13060488
Mandrysz1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 71 of 125
Up 2–0, closes it94% 34 of 36
Up 1–0, closes it72% 48 of 67
Chovancik2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 12 of 30
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeMandrysz4wins
AwayChovancik3wins
3 of 7 to a deciderMandrysz leads 4–3, and 3 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz100%3 of 3
AwayChovancik75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz3Chovancik4n = 7Chovancik took 4 of 7
S2Mandrysz5Chovancik2n = 7Mandrysz took 5 of 7
S3Mandrysz3Chovancik4n = 7Chovancik took 4 of 7
S4Mandrysz5Chovancik1n = 6Mandrysz took 5 of 6
S5Mandrysz1Chovancik2n = 3Chovancik took 2 of 3
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home114%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away229%
1–3Four sets, away114%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 7 meetings
MetricMandryszChovancikM − CBasisWins43+1in 7 meetingsFirst set34−1of 7Avg pointsper match40.139.7+0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszChovancikBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 409 vs 27 / 7350.4%37%206 / 409 vs 27 / 73Avg sets wonper match2.01.7per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.67/Chovancik 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
56.2%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chovancik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
LJul 10 · 05:40F. Mandrysz—481111102Z. Chovancik—111187123
WJul 3 · 09:45F. Mandrysz—1111113Z. Chovancik—8880
WJun 25 · 09:20F. Mandrysz—11811113Z. Chovancik—911891
LJun 25 · 06:15F. Mandrysz—211751Z. Chovancik—11511113
LJun 15 · 07:15F. Mandrysz—711121172Z. Chovancik—118148113
WJan 30 · 13:50F. Mandrysz—7111211113Z. Chovancik—11714852
WJan 30 · 12:40F. Mandrysz—11115113Z. Chovancik—591181
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690WAug 17 · 06:15R. Zajac1.83871191Z. Chovancik1.8311115113WJul 13 · 08:40L. Snr1.44116971Z. Chovancik2.6011111113LJul 13 · 08:10Z. Chovancik2.25611651L. Snr1.5811711113LJul 13 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.55111111113Z. Chovancik2.35871391
Upcoming Matches
F. Mandrysz
Z. Chovancik
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