TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12445303
Played Aug 17Finished
Zdenek Chovancik
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811114116112––
Kamil Drozd
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeZdenek Chovancik to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingZdenek Chovancik above · Kamil Drozd below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-2
Point 64 set 4, 11-2 — our read held Zdenek Chovancik at 54.0%
64 points played in total.
H2H Zdenek Chovancik 2–0 Kamil Drozd Kamil Drozd has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chovancik
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chovancik 1302 vs Drozd 1299
Chovancik
Correct
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chovancik 40% vs Drozd 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chovancik 50% vs Drozd 20%
Chovancik
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chovancik -1 · Drozd +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chovancik)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChovancik 1.80 / Drozd 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chovancik)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12445303
Chovancik1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Drozd1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog56% won 9 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back14% 1 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChovancik2wins
AwayDrozd0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderChovancik leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChovancikDrozdC − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match42.530.0+12.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChovancikDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime27 / 72 vs 23 / 5037.5%46%27 / 72 vs 23 / 50Avg sets wonper match1.82.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.438.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChovancikChovancik 1.80/Drozd 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chovancik · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Chovancik won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—81111113K. Drozd—114621
WJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152
Z. Chovancik10
WSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 12:10Z. Chovancik1.5711116113R. Zajac2.25571141LSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 10:10F. Mandrysz1.6791113101Z. Chovancik2.1011515123LAug 17 · 09:15L. Snr1.531111113Z. Chovancik2.389480LAug 17 · 06:45L. Snr1.831111113Z. Chovancik1.835690WAug 17 · 06:15R. Zajac1.83871191Z. Chovancik1.8311115113WJul 13 · 08:40L. Snr1.44116971Z. Chovancik2.6011111113LJul 13 · 08:10Z. Chovancik2.25611651L. Snr1.5811711113LJul 13 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.55111111113Z. Chovancik2.35871391
K. Drozd10
WAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871WAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131LAug 17 · 05:45L. Snr1.83111152113K. Drozd1.8356111142WJul 26 · 08:48R. Jancak1.44711117102K. Drozd2.63119811123LJul 26 · 08:15M. Sobota1.8011611113K. Drozd1.91611661LJul 26 · 07:15K. Drozd1.67125391L. Jr2.10101111113LJul 26 · 05:45R. Jancak1.53101111113K. Drozd2.38129691LJun 25 · 08:50J. Lysek—911711113K. Drozd—11911882LJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152LJun 25 · 07:15K. Drozd2.007101171F. Mandrysz1.6611129113
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