TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12302435
Played Jul 26Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
116611116116––
Kamil Drozd
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 6
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:36 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Kamil Drozd below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 68 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Martin Sobota at 54.0%
68 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 5–3 Kamil Drozd Kamil Drozd has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:36What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sobota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Sobota
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1376 vs Drozd 1303
Sobota
Correct
both rated, 73 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 60% vs Drozd 0%
Sobota
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 50% vs Drozd 30%
Sobota
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota +2 · Drozd -5
Drozd
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (0%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.80 / Drozd 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobota)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12302435
Sobota1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite28% won 9 of 32
Up 2–0, closes it67% 6 of 9
Up 1–0, closes it44% 7 of 16
Drozd1.91
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog64% won 9 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeSobota5wins
AwayDrozd3wins
4 of 8 to a deciderSobota leads 5–3, and 4 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota83.3%5 of 6
AwayDrozdn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota6Drozd2n = 8Sobota took 6 of 8
S2Sobota4Drozd4n = 8split evenly
S3Sobota4Drozd4n = 8split evenly
S4Sobota6Drozd1n = 7Sobota took 6 of 7
S5Sobota1Drozd3n = 4Drozd took 3 of 4
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away338%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricSobotaDrozdS − DBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set62+4of 8Avg pointsper match43.140.0+3.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime59 / 133 vs 21 / 4644.4%45.7%59 / 133 vs 21 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.538.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobotaSobota 1.80/Drozd 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sobota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WJul 26 · 08:15M. Sobota—11611113K. Drozd—611661
LJun 14 · 08:10M. Sobota—115911152K. Drozd—711116173
WMay 16 · 09:15M. Sobota—11112113K. Drozd—651171
LMay 16 · 07:10M. Sobota—141111692K. Drozd—164611113
WMay 2 · 07:10M. Sobota—11119113K. Drozd—871171
WApr 26 · 07:10M. Sobota—1112113K. Drozd—91060
LApr 19 · 12:45M. Sobota—47111282K. Drozd—1111910113
WApr 19 · 11:40M. Sobota—1161111123K. Drozd—911139102
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113
K. Drozd10
WAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621WAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131LAug 17 · 05:45L. Snr1.83111152113K. Drozd1.8356111142WJul 26 · 08:48R. Jancak1.44711117102K. Drozd2.63119811123LJul 26 · 07:15K. Drozd1.67125391L. Jr2.10101111113LJul 26 · 05:45R. Jancak1.53101111113K. Drozd2.38129691LJun 25 · 08:50J. Lysek—911711113K. Drozd—11911882LJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152LJun 25 · 07:15K. Drozd2.007101171F. Mandrysz1.6611129113
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