TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12301725
Played Jul 26Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1012119116119––
Kamil Drozd
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 67.3% is still 67.3%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
67.3%
67.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Kamil Drozd below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 79 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Richard Jancak at 67.3%
79 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 2–0 Kamil Drozd Kamil Drozd has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:07What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-0 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1411 vs Drozd 1303
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 107 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 80% vs Drozd 20%
Jancak
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 80% vs Drozd 40%
Jancak
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +3 · Drozd -4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 61% — Slight lean (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.53 / Drozd 2.38
Signal prob.61% / 39%
Edge (Jancak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12301725
Jancak1.53
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 41 of 68
Up 2–0, closes it100% 15 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it67% 26 of 39
Drozd2.38
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog64% won 9 of 14
Down 0–1, comes back17% 1 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJancak2wins
AwayDrozd0wins
1 of 2 to a deciderJancak leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJancakDrozdJ − DBasisWins20+2in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match45.540.5+5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime93 / 185 vs 21 / 4650.3%45.7%93 / 185 vs 21 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.038.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJancak 1.53/Drozd 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
60.8%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 26 · 05:45R. Jancak—101111113K. Drozd—129691
WMay 2 · 05:40R. Jancak—121366113K. Drozd—1011111122
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
K. Drozd10
WAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621WAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131LAug 17 · 05:45L. Snr1.83111152113K. Drozd1.8356111142WJul 26 · 08:48R. Jancak1.44711117102K. Drozd2.63119811123LJul 26 · 08:15M. Sobota1.8011611113K. Drozd1.91611661LJul 26 · 07:15K. Drozd1.67125391L. Jr2.10101111113LJun 25 · 08:50J. Lysek—911711113K. Drozd—11911882LJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152LJun 25 · 07:15K. Drozd2.007101171F. Mandrysz1.6611129113
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