TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12445304
Played Aug 17Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
115116511211114
Kamil Drozd
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKamil Drozd to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Kamil Drozd below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 2-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 77 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Kamil Drozd at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 1–1 Kamil Drozd Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:04What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Drozd
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Snr 1390 vs Drozd 1300
Snr
Correct
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 60% vs Drozd 20%
Snr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 60% vs Drozd 30%
Snr
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -1 · Drozd +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Drozd form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.83 / Drozd 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Snr)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12445304
Snr1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Drozd1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSnr1wins
AwayDrozd1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSnrDrozdS − DBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match37.538.5−1.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrDrozdBasisWin rate · lifetime45 / 97 vs 22 / 4846.4%45.8%45 / 97 vs 22 / 48Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.138.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.83/Drozd 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 17 · 05:45L. Snr—111152113K. Drozd—56111142
LJun 14 · 07:10L. Snr—881181K. Drozd—11117113
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 08:10L. Snr1.5713113113F. Mandrysz2.251171181WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113
K. Drozd10
WAug 17 · 08:43K. Drozd1.61101111113R. Zajac2.20128871LAug 17 · 08:15Z. Chovancik1.8081111113K. Drozd1.91114621WAug 17 · 07:15K. Drozd1.9111311153R. Zajac1.804117131WJul 26 · 08:48R. Jancak1.44711117102K. Drozd2.63119811123LJul 26 · 08:15M. Sobota1.8011611113K. Drozd1.91611661LJul 26 · 07:15K. Drozd1.67125391L. Jr2.10101111113LJul 26 · 05:45R. Jancak1.53101111113K. Drozd2.38129691LJun 25 · 08:50J. Lysek—911711113K. Drozd—11911882LJun 25 · 08:15Z. Chovancik—411117113K. Drozd—11641152LJun 25 · 07:15K. Drozd2.007101171F. Mandrysz1.6611129113
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