TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055912
Played Sep 1Finished
Lukas Krupnik Snr
Home
1.57
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1311117311118––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.25
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 59.7% is still 59.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Snr to win
59.7%
59.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Snr above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 75 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Snr at 59.7%
75 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Snr 2–1 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:56What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Snr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1351 vs Mandrysz 1337
Snr
Correct
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 40% vs Mandrysz 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 30% vs Mandrysz 50%
Mandrysz
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr +1 · Mandrysz +3
Mandrysz
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Snr) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.57 / Mandrysz 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Snr)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13055912
Snr1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite48% won 20 of 42
Up 2–0, closes it93% 13 of 14
Up 1–0, closes it70% 16 of 23
Mandrysz2.25
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 54 of 122
Down 0–1, comes back32% 25 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 42
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeSnr2wins
AwayMandrysz1wins
Snr leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr2Mandrysz1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S2Snr3Mandrysz0n = 3Snr took 3 of 3
S3Snr2Mandrysz1n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away133%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricSnrMandryszS − MBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match34.026.3+7.7per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime51 / 110 vs 205 / 40746.4%50.4%51 / 110 vs 205 / 407Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.57/Mandrysz 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Snr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 27 · 08:39L. Snr—1111113F. Mandrysz—3650
LAug 27 · 08:10L. Snr—911791F. Mandrysz—11811113
WAug 14 · 11:40L. Snr—1111113F. Mandrysz—9690
L. Snr10
WSep 7 · 07:45A. Strelec1.83711861L. Snr1.8311511113WSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 06:15L. Snr2.1014461192T. Slivka1.671211118113WSep 2 · 08:55J. Sindler1.671181171L. Snr2.1013117113WSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113LSep 2 · 07:10L. Snr2.10681151J. Sindler1.6711113113LSep 2 · 05:40P. Chlad1.671111113L. Snr2.104690LSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123WSep 1 · 06:40J. Sindler1.57151711972L. Snr2.251715911113LSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 7 · 08:15T. Slivka3.409390F. Mandrysz1.301111113LSep 7 · 07:15F. Mandrysz2.10128911112L. Snr1.671011117133LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 1 · 09:14L. Snr1.4099100F. Mandrysz2.751111123
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