TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086643
Played Sep 6Finished
Filip Mandrysz
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
5111189111181416
Martin Sobota
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:48 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Mandrysz to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingFilip Mandrysz above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 14-16
Point 104 set 5, 14-16 — our read held Filip Mandrysz at 54.0%
104 points played in total.
H2H Filip Mandrysz 6–4 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 4 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:48What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sobota
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-4 in 10
Mandrysz
Wrong
gap of 2 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mandrysz 1361 vs Sobota 1372
Sobota
Correct
both rated, 11 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mandrysz 80% vs Sobota 40%
Mandrysz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mandrysz 60% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mandrysz -1 · Sobota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Mandrysz)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (40%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMandrysz 1.83 / Sobota 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Mandrysz)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13086643
Mandrysz1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Sobota1.83
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMandrysz6wins
AwaySobota4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderMandrysz leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMandrysz100%5 of 5
AwaySobota80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mandrysz5Sobota5n = 10split evenly
S2Mandrysz9Sobota1n = 10Mandrysz took 9 of 10
S3Mandrysz4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S4Mandrysz3Sobota4n = 7Sobota took 4 of 7
S5Mandrysz2Sobota1n = 3Mandrysz took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMandryszSobotaM − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.937.8+3.1per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMandryszSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime215 / 425 vs 75 / 17050.6%44.1%215 / 425 vs 75 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.840.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MandryszMandrysz 1.83/Sobota 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Mandrysz · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz—511911142M. Sobota—118118163
WSep 5 · 06:10F. Mandrysz—11121310113M. Sobota—810151292
LAug 8 · 17:14F. Mandrysz—991191M. Sobota—11116113
LAug 8 · 15:10F. Mandrysz—511881M. Sobota—11511113
WJul 11 · 10:10F. Mandrysz—1411113M. Sobota—12780
WJul 4 · 05:40F. Mandrysz—1111113M. Sobota—7490
WJun 21 · 16:15F. Mandrysz—12119113M. Sobota—1091161
WMay 10 · 16:35F. Mandrysz—1111153M. Sobota—96130
WMay 10 · 13:40F. Mandrysz—611911113M. Sobota—11511742
LFeb 7 · 16:40F. Mandrysz—613791M. Sobota—111111113
F. Mandrysz10
WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
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