TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13081674
Played Sep 5Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111191171012411
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 3
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 10-12
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 94 set 5, 4-11
94 points played in total.
H2H Martin Sobota 4–0 Lukas Stempak Lukas Stempak has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobota)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 1.80 / Stempak 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sobota)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13081674
Sobota1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite33% won 11 of 33
Up 2–0, closes it57% 4 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it47% 9 of 19
Stempak1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog
Fewer than 10 matches in this role
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSobota4wins
AwayStempak0wins
2 of 4 to a deciderSobota leads 4–0, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota100%3 of 3
AwayStempakn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota3Stempak1n = 4Sobota took 3 of 4
S2Sobota3Stempak1n = 4Sobota took 3 of 4
S3Sobota1Stempak3n = 4Stempak took 3 of 4
S4Sobota3Stempak1n = 4Sobota took 3 of 4
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home250%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSobotaStempakSobota − StempakBasisWins40+4in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match46.540.2+6.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 165 vs 21 / 5343.6%39.6%72 / 165 vs 21 / 53Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobotaSobota 1.80/Stempak 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobota · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Stempak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 5 · 07:10M. Sobota—1111107113L. Stempak—93121152
WJul 25 · 08:15M. Sobota—91211113L. Stempak—1110881
WJul 11 · 07:40M. Sobota—119713113L. Stempak—711111182
WApr 19 · 07:40M. Sobota—12118113L. Stempak—1081171
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
L. Stempak10
LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
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