TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472473
Played Aug 22Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117117119––––
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:54 and never touched — 56.0% is still 56.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
56.0%
56.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 56 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 56.0%
56 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 1–1 Lukas Stempak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jr 1352 vs Stempak 1376
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 24 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 40% vs Stempak 60%
Stempak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 30% vs Stempak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -3 · Stempak -2
Jr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Stempak) · live re-read · sealed at 56% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 2.25 / Stempak 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Stempak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12472473
Jr2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog53% won 73 of 139
Down 0–1, comes back42% 26 of 62
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 28
Stempak1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 7 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJr1wins
AwayStempak1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home1
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricJrStempakJ − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match29.028.5+0.5per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime210 / 395 vs 20 / 4653.2%43.5%210 / 395 vs 20 / 46Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.639.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakJr 2.25/Stempak 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WJul 25 · 08:43L. Jr—1112113L. Stempak—41090
LJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr—68100L. Stempak—1111123
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
L. Stempak
Nothing scheduled
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