TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12296506
Played Jul 25Finished
Lukas Stempak
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1191012811811––
Martin Sobota
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 62.5% is still 62.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
62.5%
62.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Stempak above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 80 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 62.5%
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Stempak 0–3 Martin Sobota Lukas Stempak has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-3 in 3
Sobota
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1393 vs Sobota 1349
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 45 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 60% vs Sobota 40%
Stempak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 50% vs Sobota 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak +3 · Sobota -1
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.50 / Sobota 2.50
Signal prob.63% / 38%
Edge (Stempak)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #12296506
Stempak1.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite40% won 6 of 15
Up 1–0, closes it63% 5 of 8
Sobota2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog47% won 27 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back22% 6 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeStempak0wins
AwaySobota3wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSobota leads 3–0, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak1Sobota2n = 3Sobota took 2 of 3
S2Stempak1Sobota2n = 3Sobota took 2 of 3
S3Stempak2Sobota1n = 3Stempak took 2 of 3
S4Stempak0Sobota3n = 3Sobota took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away133%
1–3Four sets, away267%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricStempakSobotaStempak − SobotaBasisWins03−3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.345.3−5.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime20 / 45 vs 56 / 12944.4%43.4%20 / 45 vs 56 / 129Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.50/Sobota 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.5%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak—1110881M. Sobota—91211113
LJul 11 · 07:40L. Stempak—711111182M. Sobota—119713113
LApr 19 · 07:40L. Stempak—1081171M. Sobota—12118113
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113
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