TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080378
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1123119111171311
Martin Sobota
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:23 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Sobota to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 11-2
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 89 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Martin Sobota at 54.0%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 7–8 Martin Sobota Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 7 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:23What took a side1 for · 1 against · 4 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Sobota
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-8 in 15
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1369 vs Sobota 1350
Jr
Correct
both rated, 19 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Sobota 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Sobota +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 4 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sobota)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.83 / Sobota 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Sobota)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13080378
Jr1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Sobota1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJr4wins
AwaySobota6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSobota leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJr75%3 of 4
AwaySobota83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S2Jr6Sobota4n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Jr4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S4Jr4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S5Jr2Sobota2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJrSobotaJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.842.0+0.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime226 / 426 vs 72 / 16553.1%43.6%226 / 426 vs 72 / 165Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SobotaJr 1.83/Sobota 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Sobota · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr—113911133M. Sobota—211117112
WAug 11 · 14:15L. Jr—11812113M. Sobota—2111041
LAug 8 · 16:10L. Jr—5111071M. Sobota—11912113
WJul 26 · 09:19L. Jr—10111110113M. Sobota—12771272
LJul 26 · 06:15L. Jr—111111992M. Sobota—136511113
LJul 25 · 05:45L. Jr—1011771M. Sobota—12611113
WJul 14 · 15:15L. Jr—111011113M. Sobota—912691
LJul 11 · 12:10L. Jr—411761M. Sobota—11711113
LJul 4 · 07:10L. Jr—10111011122M. Sobota—129126143
LMay 20 · 13:40L. Jr—1679101M. Sobota—141111123
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
Upcoming Matches
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M. Sobota
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