TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13079068
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
117117911811119
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:09 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krupnik Jr above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 61.7%
95 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krupnik Jr 2–1 Lukas Stempak Lukas Stempak has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:09What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jr 1360 vs Stempak 1354
Jr
Correct
both rated, 6 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jr 60% vs Stempak 20%
Jr
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jr 50% vs Stempak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jr -1 · Stempak +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak) · live re-read · sealed at 38% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJr 1.91 / Stempak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stempak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13079068
Jr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 81 of 155
Down 0–1, comes back39% 26 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back14% 4 of 29
Stempak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite35% won 7 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeJr2wins
AwayStempak1wins
Jr leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jr2Stempak1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S2Jr2Stempak1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
S3Jr2Stempak1n = 3Jr took 2 of 3
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home267%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricJrStempakJ − SBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set21+1of 3Avg pointsper match30.326.7+3.6per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJrStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime224 / 423 vs 21 / 5053%42%224 / 423 vs 21 / 50Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.539.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakJr 1.91/Stempak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr—1111113L. Stempak—7790
WJul 25 · 08:43L. Jr—1112113L. Stempak—41090
LJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr—68100L. Stempak—1111123
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142WSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
Upcoming Matches
L. Jr
L. Stempak
Nothing scheduled
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