TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13080394
Played Sep 5Finished
Lukas Stempak
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
9113111210117511
Martin Sobota
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 01:28 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Stempak above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 90 set 5, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Stempak 1–4 Martin Sobota Lukas Stempak has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 01:28What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-4 in 5
Sobota
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1329 vs Sobota 1372
Sobota
Correct
both rated, 43 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 20% vs Sobota 60%
Sobota
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 40% vs Sobota 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak -1 · Sobota -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.80 / Sobota 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stempak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13080394
Stempak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite32% won 7 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Sobota1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog51% won 42 of 83
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeStempak1wins
AwaySobota4wins
3 of 5 to a deciderSobota leads 4–1, and 3 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStempakn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwaySobota100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stempak2Sobota3n = 5Sobota took 3 of 5
S2Stempak1Sobota4n = 5Sobota took 4 of 5
S3Stempak3Sobota2n = 5Stempak took 3 of 5
S4Stempak2Sobota3n = 5Sobota took 3 of 5
S5Stempak1Sobota2n = 3Sobota took 2 of 3
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away240%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricStempakSobotaStempak − SobotaBasisWins14−3in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match42.246.0−3.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime22 / 54 vs 75 / 17040.7%44.1%22 / 54 vs 75 / 170Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.540.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.80/Sobota 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WSep 5 · 08:40L. Stempak—119712113M. Sobota—811111042
LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak—93121152M. Sobota—1111107113
LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak—1110881M. Sobota—91211113
LJul 11 · 07:40L. Stempak—711111182M. Sobota—119713113
LApr 19 · 07:40L. Stempak—1081171M. Sobota—12118113
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.