TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086384
Played Sep 6Finished
Martin Sobota
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1171161012116––
Richard Jancak
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:18 and never touched — 63.5% is still 63.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
63.5%
63.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Sobota above · Richard Jancak below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 10-6
Point 73 set 4, 10-6 — our read held Richard Jancak at 63.5%
73 points drawn · the score is 1 ahead; the rest land in a moment.
H2H Martin Sobota 4–9 Richard Jancak Martin Sobota has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:18What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-9 in 13
Jancak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sobota 1329 vs Jancak 1303
Sobota
Correct
both rated, 26 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sobota 20% vs Jancak 60%
Jancak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sobota 50% vs Jancak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sobota -2 · Jancak -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSobota 2.50 / Jancak 1.50
Signal prob.36% / 64%
Edge (Jancak)+1.6pp
TT Cup · #13086384
Sobota2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 39 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Jancak1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it67% 40 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSobota3wins
AwayJancak7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSobota75%3 of 4
AwayJancak100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sobota4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S2Sobota3Jancak7n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S3Sobota4Jancak6n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S4Sobota6Jancak3n = 9Sobota took 6 of 9
S5Sobota1Jancak3n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSobotaJancakS − JBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.142.8−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSobotaJancakBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 166 vs 135 / 26743.4%50.6%72 / 166 vs 135 / 267Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakSobota 2.50/Jancak 1.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota—7490R. Jancak—1111113
WAug 23 · 16:15M. Sobota—15611113R. Jancak—1311941
LAug 8 · 13:40M. Sobota—1011981R. Jancak—12711113
LJul 31 · 09:40M. Sobota—125121492R. Jancak—14111012113
WJul 26 · 06:45M. Sobota—11127113R. Jancak—6101161
LJul 25 · 09:14M. Sobota—1171011102R. Jancak—911126123
LJul 25 · 07:15M. Sobota—751191R. Jancak—11117113
WJun 21 · 15:15M. Sobota—119911113R. Jancak—81111992
LJun 19 · 13:45M. Sobota—44111262R. Jancak—1111510113
LJun 7 · 16:10M. Sobota—8111181R. Jancak—11513113
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113LAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113
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