TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13086885
Played Sep 6Finished
Jaroslav Sindler
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
131510121191513117
Martin Sobota
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:19 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Sindler to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Sindler above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 15-13
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 116 set 5, 11-7 — our read held Jaroslav Sindler at 57.0%
116 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Sindler 14–9 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:19What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Sindler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Sindler
Correct
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sindler 1382 vs Sobota 1372
Sindler
Correct
both rated, 10 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sindler 60% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sindler 70% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sindler +3 · Sobota +2
Sindler
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Sindler)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSindler 1.67 / Sobota 2.10
Signal prob.57% / 43%
Edge (Sindler)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13086885
Sindler1.67
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite50% won 128 of 257
Up 2–0, closes it90% 44 of 49
Up 1–0, closes it67% 82 of 123
Sobota2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 39 of 79
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSindler6wins
AwaySobota4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderSindler leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSindler75%3 of 4
AwaySobota50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sindler4Sobota6n = 10Sobota took 6 of 10
S2Sindler7Sobota3n = 10Sindler took 7 of 10
S3Sindler3Sobota7n = 10Sobota took 7 of 10
S4Sindler6Sobota3n = 9Sindler took 6 of 9
S5Sindler2Sobota1n = 3Sindler took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSindlerSobotaSindler − SobotaBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.540.6+1.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSindlerSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime383 / 750 vs 75 / 17051.1%44.1%383 / 750 vs 75 / 170Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.240.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SindlerSindler 1.67/Sobota 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57%
Sindler · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sindler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler—711791M. Sobota—11911113
WSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler—13101115113M. Sobota—151291372
WAug 9 · 07:10J. Sindler—11119133M. Sobota—5711111
WJul 11 · 12:40J. Sindler—71111113M. Sobota—113661
WJul 11 · 10:40J. Sindler—81113113M. Sobota—1161191
LJun 21 · 16:50J. Sindler—101161182M. Sobota—128115113
LJun 21 · 13:45J. Sindler—117981M. Sobota—91111113
WJun 19 · 15:15J. Sindler—1113615123M. Sobota—8111117102
LJun 14 · 11:40J. Sindler—9970M. Sobota—1111113
WJun 6 · 13:40J. Sindler—11118113M. Sobota—771171
J. Sindler10
LSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942WSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 16:43J. Sindler1.80811411123D. Stefek1.91119119102LSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571LSep 5 · 15:10J. Sindler2.508560O. Skvor1.501111113WSep 5 · 13:40D. Stefek1.67116111152J. Sindler2.10611913113WSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113LSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123WSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak1.531311941M. Sobota2.3815611113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.