TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12480888
Played Aug 23Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1315116911411––
Martin Sobota
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 15:30 and never touched — 66.8% is still 66.8%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
66.8%
66.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Martin Sobota below
Set 1 · 13-15
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 4-11
Point 80 set 4, 4-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 66.8%
80 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 9–4 Martin Sobota Martin Sobota has won 4 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 15:30What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
9-4 in 13
Jancak
Wrong
gap of 5 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1451 vs Sobota 1362
Jancak
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 80% vs Sobota 60%
Jancak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 70% vs Sobota 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +3 · Sobota +3
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Jancak) · live re-read · sealed at 67% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sobota form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.53 / Sobota 2.38
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Jancak)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #12480888
Jancak1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 56 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it67% 33 of 49
Sobota2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 35 of 75
Down 0–1, comes back23% 8 of 35
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 18
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJancak7wins
AwaySobota3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJancak100%6 of 6
AwaySobota75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jancak6Sobota4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S2Jancak7Sobota3n = 10Jancak took 7 of 10
S3Jancak6Sobota4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S4Jancak3Sobota6n = 9Sobota took 6 of 9
S5Jancak3Sobota1n = 4Jancak took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJancakSobotaJ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.840.1+2.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakSobotaBasisWin rate · lifetime125 / 244 vs 71 / 16251.2%43.8%125 / 244 vs 71 / 162Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJancak 1.53/Sobota 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.8%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sobota won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 23 · 17:18R. Jancak—1111113M. Sobota—7490
LAug 23 · 16:15R. Jancak—1311941M. Sobota—15611113
WAug 8 · 13:40R. Jancak—12711113M. Sobota—1011981
WJul 31 · 09:40R. Jancak—14111012113M. Sobota—125121492
LJul 26 · 06:45R. Jancak—6101161M. Sobota—11127113
WJul 25 · 09:14R. Jancak—911126123M. Sobota—1171011102
WJul 25 · 07:15R. Jancak—11117113M. Sobota—751191
LJun 21 · 15:15R. Jancak—81111992M. Sobota—119911113
WJun 19 · 13:45R. Jancak—1111510113M. Sobota—44111262
WJun 7 · 16:10R. Jancak—11513113M. Sobota—8111181
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
M. Sobota10
WSep 6 · 17:18J. Sindler1.67711791M. Sobota2.1011911113LSep 6 · 15:45J. Sindler1.6713101115113M. Sobota2.10151291372WSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163WSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112WSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LAug 23 · 17:18M. Sobota2.207490R. Jancak1.611111113WAug 23 · 15:14M. Sobota1.9111117113J. Matus1.80971171
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