TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472971
Played Aug 22Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191188118111412
Lukas Stempak
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:15 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Lukas Stempak below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Set 5 · 14-12
Point 103 set 5, 14-12 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 54.0%
103 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 1–1 Lukas Stempak Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:15What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1359 vs Stempak 1343
Jancak
Correct
both rated, 16 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 40% vs Stempak 20%
Jancak
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 50% vs Stempak 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +1 · Stempak -4
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.91 / Stempak 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Stempak)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #12472971
Jancak1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 35 of 81
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 46
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Stempak1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 7 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeJancak1wins
AwayStempak1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricJancakStempakJ − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set20+2of 2Avg pointsper match49.549.0+0.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakStempakBasisWin rate · lifetime117 / 233 vs 20 / 4850.2%41.7%117 / 233 vs 20 / 48Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.738.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakJancak 1.91/Stempak 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LJul 25 · 06:15R. Jancak—121123872L. Stempak—10132111113
WJul 18 · 06:45R. Jancak—11511113L. Stempak—911661
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak1.7310790P. Sturma2.001211113LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
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