TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12472939
Played Aug 22Finished
Lukas Stempak
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012711911––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:05 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Stempak to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Stempak above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 60 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Stempak at 54.0%
60 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Stempak 1–1 Patrik Sturma Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 23:05What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Stempak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Stempak 1354 vs Sturma 1310
Stempak
Wrong
both rated, 44 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stempak 40% vs Sturma 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stempak 40% vs Sturma 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stempak -3 · Sturma +2
Stempak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Stempak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stempak form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStempak 1.73 / Sturma 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Stempak)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #12472939
Stempak1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite35% won 7 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it56% 5 of 9
Sturma2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 139 of 280
Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 136
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeStempak1wins
AwaySturma1wins
1 of 2 to a deciderLevel at 1–1, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away1
These 2 meetings
MetricStempakSturmaStempak − SturmaBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match38.543.0−4.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStempakSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime21 / 50 vs 391 / 80442%48.6%21 / 50 vs 391 / 804Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StempakStempak 1.73/Sturma 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Stempak · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
WAug 22 · 08:50L. Stempak—127714113P. Sturma—1011111282
LAug 22 · 07:10L. Stempak—10790P. Sturma—1211113
L. Stempak10
WSep 5 · 08:40M. Sobota1.80811111042L. Stempak1.91119712113LSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280LSep 5 · 07:10L. Stempak1.8093121152M. Sobota1.911111107113LSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192WAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113LAug 22 · 08:10R. Jancak1.91111188143L. Stempak1.80981111122LAug 22 · 05:40L. Jr2.251111113L. Stempak1.577790LJul 25 · 08:43L. Stempak1.3641090L. Jr3.001112113LJul 25 · 08:15L. Stempak1.501110881M. Sobota2.5091211113WJul 25 · 06:45L. Jr2.5068100L. Stempak1.501111123
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930LAug 22 · 08:50P. Sturma1.611011111282L. Stempak2.20127714113
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