TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058103
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1214711511––––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timePatrik Sturma to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 12-14
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 60 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Patrik Sturma at 54.9%
60 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 13–14 Patrik Sturma Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 13 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:13What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Sturma
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-14 in 27
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1334 vs Sturma 1374
Sturma
Correct
both rated, 39 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Sturma 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 40% vs Sturma 60%
Sturma
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Sturma +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sturma)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.20 / Sturma 1.61
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Sturma)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13058103
Jnr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog47% won 27 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Sturma1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 79 of 174
Up 2–0, closes it85% 29 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it52% 46 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr4wins
AwaySturma6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderSturma leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr40%2 of 5
AwaySturma60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S3Jnr2Sturma8n = 10Sturma took 8 of 10
S4Jnr3Sturma5n = 8Sturma took 5 of 8
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrSturmaJ − SBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.039.0−5.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 241 vs 399 / 82153.1%48.6%128 / 241 vs 399 / 821Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SturmaJnr 2.20/Sturma 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.9%
Sturma · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Sturma won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 15 · 15:45J. Jnr—6430P. Sturma—1111113
LJul 14 · 18:15J. Jnr—1171361P. Sturma—61115113
WJun 30 · 17:10J. Jnr—71112113P. Sturma—1141091
LJun 30 · 14:10J. Jnr—168971P. Sturma—141111113
LJun 29 · 17:20J. Jnr—612341P. Sturma—111011113
WJun 29 · 14:15J. Jnr—111186113P. Sturma—99111182
WJun 29 · 10:15J. Jnr—51411133P. Sturma—11125111
LMay 29 · 18:10J. Jnr—116671P. Sturma—71111113
LMay 29 · 17:13J. Jnr—7870P. Sturma—1111113
WMay 29 · 16:10J. Jnr—11119113P. Sturma—681151
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113LAug 30 · 15:10R. Jancak1.6111511113P. Sturma2.20511391
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