TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13046364
Played Aug 30Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
115511113119––
Patrik Sturma
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:36 and never touched — 58.9% is still 58.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
58.9%
58.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-3
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 66 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Richard Jancak at 58.9%
66 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 11–10 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 10 of their 21 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:36What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jancak
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-10 in 21
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1340 vs Sturma 1355
Sturma
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 60% vs Sturma 80%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 40% vs Sturma 60%
Sturma
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak -2 · Sturma +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.61 / Sturma 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Jancak)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13046364
Jancak1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite56% won 63 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it96% 22 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it65% 37 of 57
Sturma2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog49% won 139 of 283
Down 0–1, comes back39% 55 of 140
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJancak5wins
AwaySturma5wins
1 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJancak50%3 of 6
AwaySturma50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jancak6Sturma4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S2Jancak6Sturma4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S3Jancak4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S4Jancak4Sturma3n = 7Jancak took 4 of 7
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJancakSturmaJ − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.632.8+2.8per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 256 vs 397 / 81750.8%48.6%130 / 256 vs 397 / 817Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.739.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJancak 1.61/Sturma 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jancak won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 22 · 10:10R. Jancak—91113113P. Sturma—1171161
LAug 22 · 06:10R. Jancak—118861P. Sturma—61111113
LJul 31 · 13:14R. Jancak—38110P. Sturma—1111133
LJul 31 · 11:40R. Jancak—811961P. Sturma—11611113
WJul 29 · 20:15R. Jancak—81111113P. Sturma—117631
LJul 7 · 06:45R. Jancak—117581P. Sturma—91111113
WJun 30 · 16:10R. Jancak—11119113P. Sturma—551151
LJun 26 · 09:40R. Jancak—11671182P. Sturma—611116113
WJun 8 · 20:15R. Jancak—1111113P. Sturma—7590
WJun 7 · 17:15R. Jancak—1111113P. Sturma—6490
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
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