TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13057739
Played Sep 1Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
11131210911117811
Jiri Matus
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:13 and never touched — 56.9% is still 56.9%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
56.9%
56.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 103 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Jiri Matus at 56.9%
103 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 5–10 Jiri Matus Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr has won 5 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:13What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-10 in 15
Matus
Correct
gap of 5 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1346 vs Matus 1317
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 29 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 60% vs Matus 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 50% vs Matus 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr +3 · Matus +1
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.91 / Matus 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13057739
Jnr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog47% won 27 of 57
Down 0–1, comes back36% 9 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back9% 1 of 11
Matus1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 96 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr3wins
AwayMatus7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderMatus leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr60%3 of 5
AwayMatus100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr5Matus5n = 10split evenly
S2Jnr3Matus7n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S3Jnr3Matus7n = 10Matus took 7 of 10
S4Jnr3Matus4n = 7Matus took 4 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrMatusJ − MBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match34.538.1−3.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime128 / 240 vs 207 / 40253.3%51.5%128 / 240 vs 207 / 402Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.839.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusJnr 1.91/Matus 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 1 · 24:10J. Jnr—118311113J. Matus—81111562
WAug 23 · 16:48J. Jnr—11911113J. Matus—911771
LAug 23 · 15:45J. Jnr—5116121J. Matus—11611143
LJul 20 · 11:15J. Jnr—117541J. Matus—41111113
LJul 19 · 19:15J. Jnr—128131162J. Matus—1411117113
WJul 1 · 21:15J. Jnr—1111113J. Matus—8690
LJul 1 · 17:45J. Jnr—9111091J. Matus—11712113
LJun 19 · 20:15J. Jnr—2930J. Matus—1111113
LJun 16 · 05:45J. Jnr—10870J. Matus—1211113
LMay 29 · 20:40J. Jnr—1181081J. Matus—81112113
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
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