TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13041076
Played Aug 29Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811113117114––
Patrik Sturma
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:00 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Matus to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Patrik Sturma below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 66 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jiri Matus at 54.0%
66 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 20–16 Patrik Sturma Patrik Sturma has won 16 of their 36 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:00What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
20-16 in 36
Matus
Correct
gap of 4 in 36, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1293 vs Sturma 1285
Matus
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 40% vs Sturma 20%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 20% vs Sturma 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus -1 · Sturma -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sturma form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.80 / Sturma 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13041076
Matus1.80
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite58% won 95 of 164
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Sturma1.91
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 138 of 279
Down 0–1, comes back40% 55 of 138
Down 0–2, comes back9% 4 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus5wins
AwaySturma5wins
2 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus75%3 of 4
AwaySturma66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S2Matus4Sturma6n = 10Sturma took 6 of 10
S3Matus5Sturma5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus5Sturma3n = 8Matus took 5 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusSturmaM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match37.738.8−1.1per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusSturmaBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 395 vs 392 / 80951.4%48.5%203 / 395 vs 392 / 809Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.039.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.80/Sturma 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 28 · 18:40J. Matus—511981P. Sturma—11811113
WJul 27 · 14:40J. Matus—51113113P. Sturma—1151181
LJul 22 · 12:15J. Matus—9780P. Sturma—1111113
WJul 7 · 10:45J. Matus—11711113P. Sturma—811871
WJun 25 · 13:45J. Matus—591211113P. Sturma—111110832
LJun 22 · 18:10J. Matus—511571P. Sturma—11711113
WJun 22 · 15:10J. Matus—11711163P. Sturma—1118141
WJun 8 · 20:40J. Matus—12611113P. Sturma—1011881
LJun 8 · 18:45J. Matus—8870P. Sturma—1111113
LMay 29 · 18:40J. Matus—161179132P. Sturma—1471111153
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203
P. Sturma10
LSep 2 · 13:15P. Sturma1.531061171Z. Chovancik2.3812117113WSep 2 · 11:40P. Sturma2.10511811113F. Mandrysz1.6711511692WSep 2 · 10:40P. Sturma1.73511611143Z. Chovancik2.00114118122WSep 2 · 09:40P. Sturma1.83811911113R. Zajac1.8311711962LSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113WSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113WSep 1 · 14:15L. Jr1.53731161P. Sturma2.3811115113LAug 30 · 17:10J. Sindler1.531111113P. Sturma2.389930WAug 30 · 15:40J. Sindler1.83913971P. Sturma1.83111111113
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