TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13058096
Played Sep 1Finished
Jiri Matus
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118114911119––
Lukas Krupnik Jr
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:13 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krupnik Jr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJiri Matus above · Lukas Krupnik Jr below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 74 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Lukas Krupnik Jr at 54.0%
74 points played in total.
H2H Jiri Matus 17–11 Lukas Krupnik Jr Lukas Krupnik Jr has won 11 of their 28 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:13What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Matus
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-11 in 28
Matus
Correct
gap of 6 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Matus 1328 vs Jr 1346
Jr
Wrong
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Matus 60% vs Jr 40%
Matus
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Matus 60% vs Jr 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Matus +2 · Jr -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Matus) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jr form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMatus 1.80 / Jr 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Matus)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13058096
Matus1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 96 of 167
Up 2–0, closes it94% 43 of 46
Up 1–0, closes it74% 64 of 86
Jr1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog53% won 81 of 153
Down 0–1, comes back40% 26 of 65
Down 0–2, comes back15% 4 of 27
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMatus4wins
AwayJr6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderJr leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMatus33.3%1 of 3
AwayJr57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Matus3Jr7n = 10Jr took 7 of 10
S2Matus4Jr6n = 10Jr took 6 of 10
S3Matus5Jr5n = 10split evenly
S4Matus5Jr4n = 9Matus took 5 of 9
S5Matus3Jr3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMatusJrM − JBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match40.140.2−0.1per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMatusJrBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 403 vs 220 / 41651.6%52.9%208 / 403 vs 220 / 416Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.040.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MatusMatus 1.80/Jr 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Matus · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 29 · 17:40J. Matus—58111182L. Jr—111169113
WAug 4 · 19:40J. Matus—111116113L. Jr—11671152
LAug 3 · 21:15J. Matus—116991L. Jr—71111113
LAug 3 · 18:15J. Matus—8890L. Jr—1111113
LJul 28 · 20:35J. Matus—511119102L. Jr—118511123
WJul 28 · 19:40J. Matus—851111113L. Jr—11116552
WJul 23 · 19:45J. Matus—91111113L. Jr—114541
LJul 19 · 20:48J. Matus—127771L. Jr—101111113
LJul 19 · 19:45J. Matus—61171152L. Jr—113116113
WJul 7 · 09:45J. Matus—128911113L. Jr—101111782
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
L. Jr10
WSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113LSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 18:45L. Jr1.839790M. Dolezal1.831111113LSep 6 · 17:45L. Jr1.8379111172J. Oleksik1.83111176113LSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 07:40L. Jr1.83113911133M. Sobota1.83211117112LSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 05:40L. Jr1.91111198113L. Stempak1.8077111192LSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 16:15L. Jr2.00711116113F. Mandrysz1.7311391142
Upcoming Matches
J. Matus
Nothing scheduled
L. Jr
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