TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13043972
Played Aug 29Finished
Richard Jancak
Home
1.68
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
811811117118811
Jiri Matus
Away
1.98
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:49 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Jancak to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingRichard Jancak above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 94 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Richard Jancak at 54.9%
94 points played in total.
H2H Richard Jancak 11–11 Jiri Matus Dead even across their 22 meetings.
Last 10 · 7–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:49What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.68 (54%)
Jancak
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-11 in 22
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jancak 1373 vs Matus 1284
Jancak
Wrong
both rated, 89 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jancak 80% vs Matus 40%
Jancak
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jancak 50% vs Matus 30%
Jancak
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jancak +4 · Matus -1
Jancak
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Jancak)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (40%) is below what odds imply (51%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJancak 1.68 / Matus 1.98
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Jancak)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13043972
Jancak1.68
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite57% won 60 of 106
Up 2–0, closes it100% 20 of 20
Up 1–0, closes it66% 35 of 53
Matus1.98
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog43% won 25 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back28% 8 of 29
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJancak7wins
AwayMatus3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJancak leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJancak75%3 of 4
AwayMatus33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jancak4Matus6n = 10Matus took 6 of 10
S2Jancak8Matus2n = 10Jancak took 8 of 10
S3Jancak6Matus4n = 10Jancak took 6 of 10
S4Jancak6Matus3n = 9Jancak took 6 of 9
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJancakMatusJ − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.036.0+5.0per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJancakMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 254 vs 204 / 39751.2%51.4%130 / 254 vs 204 / 397Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JancakJancak 1.68/Matus 1.98
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.9%
Jancak · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 29 · 19:40R. Jancak—1111203J. Matus—62180
WAug 23 · 14:15R. Jancak—511118113J. Matus—11561122
LAug 13 · 08:43R. Jancak—891181J. Matus—11115113
WAug 13 · 06:10R. Jancak—11118113J. Matus—951191
LAug 3 · 18:45R. Jancak—1011871J. Matus—12511113
LAug 2 · 18:10R. Jancak—11981152J. Matus—811115113
WJul 24 · 12:10R. Jancak—71111113J. Matus—117991
WJul 23 · 21:15R. Jancak—71112143J. Matus—11810121
WJul 23 · 18:15R. Jancak—61311113J. Matus—1111671
WJul 19 · 18:15R. Jancak—11117113J. Matus—481171
R. Jancak10
LSep 6 · 20:49R. Jancak1.53611991L. Jr2.3811611113WSep 6 · 19:45L. Jr2.2511931182R. Jancak1.57811119113LSep 6 · 19:15J. Oleksik2.00111169113R. Jancak1.7356111152LSep 6 · 18:15R. Jancak1.8364111192M. Dolezal1.83111197113LSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101LSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 14:45J. Sindler2.208111011113R. Jancak1.6111612942LSep 6 · 14:15M. Sobota2.50111110113R. Jancak1.50761261LSep 3 · 13:13R. Jancak2.00781171J. Sindler1.7311119113WSep 3 · 11:45J. Sindler1.61121145102R. Jancak2.201061111123
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203WAug 29 · 18:40J. Matus1.8081111113P. Sturma1.91113741
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