TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070280
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 4
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117115116––––
Filip Mandrysz
Away
2.75
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 08:17 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Filip Mandrysz below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 51 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr at 54.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 12–3 Filip Mandrysz Filip Mandrysz has won 3 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 08:17What took a side4 for · 2 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Jnr
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-3 in 15
Jnr
Correct
gap of 9 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1305 vs Mandrysz 1305
Jnr
Correct
both rated, 0 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Mandrysz 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 30% vs Mandrysz 60%
Mandrysz
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -4 · Mandrysz +1
Jnr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 70% — Clear lean (leans Jnr) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Mandrysz form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 1.40 / Mandrysz 2.75
Signal prob.70% / 30%
Edge (Jnr)+3.5pp
TT Cup · #13070280
Jnr1.40
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite54% won 45 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it91% 19 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 27 of 37
Mandrysz2.75
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 56 of 125
Down 0–1, comes back33% 26 of 80
Down 0–2, comes back5% 2 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJnr8wins
AwayMandrysz2wins
2 of 10 to a deciderJnr leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJnr85.7%6 of 7
AwayMandrysz33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jnr7Mandrysz3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S2Jnr8Mandrysz2n = 10Jnr took 8 of 10
S3Jnr7Mandrysz3n = 10Jnr took 7 of 10
S4Jnr6Mandrysz0n = 6Jnr took 6 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricJnrMandryszJ − MBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.130.3+9.8per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrMandryszBasisWin rate · lifetime129 / 245 vs 208 / 41452.7%50.2%129 / 245 vs 208 / 414Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrJnr 1.40/Mandrysz 2.75
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
69.8%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr—1111113F. Mandrysz—7560
WAug 14 · 10:40J. Jnr—1111113F. Mandrysz—6590
WJul 18 · 16:49J. Jnr—11149113F. Mandrysz—8121141
WJul 18 · 14:40J. Jnr—1111113F. Mandrysz—7440
WJul 15 · 15:45J. Jnr—1111113F. Mandrysz—4670
WJun 30 · 15:40J. Jnr—91111113F. Mandrysz—118841
LJun 29 · 15:45J. Jnr—11981242F. Mandrysz—5111110113
LJun 16 · 13:15J. Jnr—614111182F. Mandrysz—111694113
WJun 16 · 12:15J. Jnr—11119133F. Mandrysz—2611111
WJun 16 · 08:45J. Jnr—91211123F. Mandrysz—11107101
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
F. Mandrysz10
LSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131WSep 6 · 16:50F. Mandrysz1.5111119123R. Jancak2.378311101WSep 6 · 16:15R. Jancak2.20311651F. Mandrysz1.6111911113LSep 6 · 15:15F. Mandrysz1.83511911142M. Sobota1.83118118163LSep 6 · 13:45J. Sindler1.73126115113F. Mandrysz2.00101191172WSep 5 · 09:10F. Mandrysz1.721111113L. Jr2.008860WSep 5 · 08:10F. Mandrysz1.831114113L. Stempak1.8371280WSep 5 · 06:40L. Jr1.8311701182F. Mandrysz1.83811119113WSep 5 · 06:10M. Sobota1.73810151292F. Mandrysz2.0011121310113LSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143
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F. Mandrysz
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