TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070803
Played Sep 3Finished
Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
511116711116115
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:18 and never touched — 55.1% is still 55.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Zustina to win
55.1%
55.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJaroslav Neuwirth Jnr above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 11-5
Point 84 set 5, 11-5 — our read held Lukas Zustina at 55.1%
84 points played in total.
H2H Jaroslav Neuwirth Jnr 1–0 Lukas Zustina Lukas Zustina has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:18What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Jnr 1308 vs Zustina 1350
Zustina
Wrong
both rated, 42 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jnr 20% vs Zustina 60%
Zustina
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jnr 40% vs Zustina 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jnr -1 · Zustina -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Zustina) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJnr 2.10 / Zustina 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Zustina)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13070803
Jnr2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 27 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back32% 9 of 28
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 12
Zustina1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite30% won 7 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it50% 4 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeJnr1wins
AwayZustina0wins
1 of 1 to a deciderJnr leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home1
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricJnrZustinaJ − ZBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set01−1of 1Avg pointsper match45.039.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJnrZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime130 / 247 vs 44 / 9352.6%47.3%130 / 247 vs 44 / 93Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.737.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZustinaJnr 2.10/Zustina 1.67
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Zustina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jnr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr—511711113L. Zustina—11611652
J. Jnr10
WSep 3 · 17:18L. Jr1.73117311102J. Jnr2.00411118123LSep 3 · 14:45J. Jnr2.001183101L. Jr1.7381111123WSep 3 · 13:45J. Jnr1.401111113F. Mandrysz2.757560LSep 1 · 16:45L. Jr1.651114816113J. Jnr2.10516111462LSep 1 · 15:45J. Jnr1.8351080L. Jr1.831112113LSep 1 · 14:45J. Jnr2.2012750P. Sturma1.611411113LSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 17:15J. Jnr1.71117128113O. Vaclahovsky1.93511101152WAug 31 · 15:40O. Vaclahovsky1.67641161J. Jnr2.1011116113
L. Zustina10
WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172WSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122LSep 3 · 10:15R. Jancak1.7311511113L. Zustina2.00611841WAug 4 · 16:43P. Chvojka1.7363100L. Zustina2.001111123LAug 4 · 16:15L. Zustina1.6767110P. Chvojka2.101111133LAug 4 · 14:45P. Jokiel1.911181212113L. Zustina1.80611141062
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