TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #12359918
Played Aug 4Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
11681112141210116
Lukas Zustina
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:45 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Lukas Zustina below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 101 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Patrik Jokiel at 54.0%
101 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 2–2 Lukas Zustina Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:45What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Zustina
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1425 vs Zustina 1387
Jokiel
Correct
both rated, 38 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 60% vs Zustina 20%
Jokiel
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 60% vs Zustina 30%
Jokiel
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel +3 · Zustina -1
Jokiel
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jokiel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zustina form (20%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.91 / Zustina 1.80
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jokiel)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #12359918
Jokiel1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 68 of 134
Down 0–1, comes back40% 23 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Zustina1.80
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite44% won 11 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it60% 6 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeJokiel2wins
AwayZustina2wins
3 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 3 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel66.7%2 of 3
AwayZustinan = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel3Zustina1n = 4Jokiel took 3 of 4
S2Jokiel2Zustina2n = 4split evenly
S3Jokiel1Zustina3n = 4Zustina took 3 of 4
S4Jokiel3Zustina1n = 4Jokiel took 3 of 4
S5Jokiel1Zustina2n = 3Zustina took 2 of 3
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home125%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricJokielZustinaJ − ZBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match46.244.5+1.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielZustinaBasisWin rate · lifetime163 / 350 vs 40 / 8446.6%47.6%163 / 350 vs 40 / 84Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.437.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.91/Zustina 1.80
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WAug 4 · 14:45P. Jokiel—1181212113L. Zustina—611141062
WJul 9 · 13:20P. Jokiel—11119113L. Zustina—491161
LJul 9 · 10:15P. Jokiel—49111172L. Zustina—111186113
LApr 16 · 11:10P. Jokiel—111141292L. Zustina—991114113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482
L. Zustina10
WSep 3 · 16:48F. Mandrysz2.10111169122L. Zustina1.67731111143LSep 3 · 15:45J. Jnr2.10511711113L. Zustina1.6711611652LSep 3 · 15:15F. Mandrysz2.1011111111113L. Zustina1.6713881382WSep 3 · 14:15L. Zustina1.7312118113L. Jr2.001091131WSep 3 · 12:45L. Zustina1.28115114113R. Sedivy3.5051191172WSep 3 · 12:15L. Zustina1.611111113R. Sedivy2.209880LSep 3 · 10:45J. Sindler2.10911811143L. Zustina1.67112117122LSep 3 · 10:15R. Jancak1.7311511113L. Zustina2.00611841WAug 4 · 16:43P. Chvojka1.7363100L. Zustina2.001111123LAug 4 · 16:15L. Zustina1.6767110P. Chvojka2.101111133
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