TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082347
Played Sep 5Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.82
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1113115118119––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
1.78
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:38 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timePatrik Jokiel to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is going
Point-by-point unavailable
BetsAPI did not publish a timeline for this match.
79 points played in total.
Set by set
1113115118119––
H2H Patrik Jokiel 11–22 Tomas Ogrocki Patrik Jokiel has won 11 of their 33 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:38What took a side1 for · 3 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.78 (51%)
Ogrocki
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-22 in 33
Ogrocki
Wrong
gap of 11 in 33, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1384 vs Ogrocki 1320
Jokiel
Correct
both rated, 64 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 40% vs Ogrocki 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 50% vs Ogrocki 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Ogrocki -3
Ogrocki
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jokiel)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.82 / Ogrocki 1.78
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Jokiel)+4.6pp
TT Cup · #13082347
Jokiel1.82
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog49% won 77 of 158
Down 0–1, comes back36% 24 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Ogrocki1.78
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 57 of 98
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 39 of 52
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel5wins
AwayOgrocki5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel50%2 of 4
AwayOgrocki50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel4Ogrocki6n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S2Jokiel7Ogrocki3n = 10Jokiel took 7 of 10
S3Jokiel3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Jokiel4Ogrocki4n = 8split evenly
S5Jokiel2Ogrocki1n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielOgrockiJ − OBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match38.039.0−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime195 / 416 vs 209 / 45046.9%46.4%195 / 416 vs 209 / 450Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.537.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JokielJokiel 1.82/Ogrocki 1.78
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Jokiel · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 31 · 19:10P. Jokiel—101114113T. Ogrocki—1281291
LAug 30 · 16:38P. Jokiel—8780T. Ogrocki—1111113
WAug 30 · 16:15P. Jokiel—1111113T. Ogrocki—9390
LAug 29 · 10:40P. Jokiel—11117992T. Ogrocki—881111113
LAug 19 · 15:40P. Jokiel—6116121T. Ogrocki—11711143
LAug 15 · 11:45P. Jokiel—114891T. Ogrocki—41111113
LAug 9 · 06:40P. Jokiel—511381T. Ogrocki—11911113
WAug 7 · 14:15P. Jokiel—411711113T. Ogrocki—11811762
WAug 5 · 18:10P. Jokiel—117611113T. Ogrocki—41111592
WAug 4 · 17:14P. Jokiel—81117113T. Ogrocki—1161591
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482WAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki1.571281291P. Jokiel2.25101114113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 19:10T. Ogrocki1.571281291P. Jokiel2.25101114113
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