TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13071358
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
3111614115116––
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:40 and never touched — 58.0% is still 58.0%
Graded at full timeTomas Ogrocki to win
58.0%
58.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 16-14
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Tomas Ogrocki at 58.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 2–1 Ivan Jemelka Ivan Jemelka has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:40What took a side1 for · 2 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Ogrocki
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1388 vs Jemelka 1401
Jemelka
Wrong
both rated, 13 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Jemelka 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 40% vs Jemelka 70%
Jemelka
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +1 · Jemelka -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
1 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Jemelka) · live re-read · sealed at 42% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 1.80 / Jemelka 1.91
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Jemelka)+5.5pp
TT Cup · #13071358
Ogrocki1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite57% won 55 of 96
Up 2–0, closes it96% 25 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it75% 38 of 51
Jemelka1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 20 of 35
Down 0–1, comes back25% 4 of 16
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeOgrocki2wins
AwayJemelka1wins
Ogrocki leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki1Jemelka2n = 3Jemelka took 2 of 3
S2Ogrocki2Jemelka1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S3Ogrocki2Jemelka1n = 3Ogrocki took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricOgrockiJemelkaO − JBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match29.327.0+2.3per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime209 / 445 vs 46 / 9947%46.5%209 / 445 vs 46 / 99Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.436.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JemelkaOgrocki 1.80/Jemelka 1.91
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Jemelka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki—31611113I. Jemelka—1114561
LAug 16 · 06:45T. Ogrocki—3740I. Jemelka—1111113
WJun 15 · 15:15T. Ogrocki—1111113I. Jemelka—6240
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2.0074100I. Jemelka1.731111123
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