TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13052018
Played Aug 31Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511811811––––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 11:03 and never touched — 64.9% is still 64.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
64.9%
64.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 64.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Karel Zeman 14–9 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 9 of their 23 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 11:03What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-9 in 23
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 5 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1386 vs Ogrocki 1366
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 20 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 40% vs Ogrocki 20%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 30% vs Ogrocki 20%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman +1 · Ogrocki -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.44 / Ogrocki 2.63
Signal prob.65% / 35%
Edge (Zeman)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13052018
Zeman1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Ogrocki2.63
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman4wins
AwayOgrocki6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderOgrocki leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman80%4 of 5
AwayOgrocki100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman5Ogrocki5n = 10split evenly
S2Zeman7Ogrocki3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S3Zeman3Ogrocki7n = 10Ogrocki took 7 of 10
S4Zeman3Ogrocki1n = 4Zeman took 3 of 4
S5Zeman0Ogrocki3n = 3Ogrocki took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanOgrockiZ − OBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.034.4+0.6per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime165 / 297 vs 206 / 44155.6%46.7%165 / 297 vs 206 / 441Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.44/Ogrocki 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Ogrocki won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman—5880T. Ogrocki—1111113
WAug 21 · 21:10K. Zeman—1111113T. Ogrocki—6690
LAug 21 · 20:15K. Zeman—10890T. Ogrocki—1211113
LAug 19 · 20:33K. Zeman—71191192T. Ogrocki—119111113
LAug 19 · 18:40K. Zeman—13113862T. Ogrocki—1171111113
LAug 11 · 19:15K. Zeman—101191182T. Ogrocki—129117113
WJul 20 · 17:45K. Zeman—1111113T. Ogrocki—8880
WJul 16 · 20:10K. Zeman—1111113T. Ogrocki—9530
WJun 25 · 21:15K. Zeman—11129113T. Ogrocki—9101181
LJun 25 · 19:15K. Zeman—9860T. Ogrocki—1111113
K. Zeman10
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113LAug 31 · 18:10P. Jokiel1.8371411113K. Zeman1.831112561WAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113LAug 30 · 20:15K. Zeman1.6191380J. Vanous2.201115113LAug 30 · 18:45V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111542
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892
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