TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047254
Played Aug 30Finished
Vladislav Reska
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210511711115114
Karel Zeman
Away
1.91
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeVladislav Reska to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingVladislav Reska above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 87 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Vladislav Reska at 54.0%
87 points played in total.
H2H Vladislav Reska 16–12 Karel Zeman Karel Zeman has won 12 of their 28 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Reska
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
16-12 in 28
Reska
Correct
gap of 4 in 28, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Reska 1450 vs Zeman 1416
Reska
Correct
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Reska 60% vs Zeman 20%
Reska
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Reska 40% vs Zeman 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Reska +2 · Zeman -4
Zeman
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Reska)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (20%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsReska 1.80 / Zeman 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Reska)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13047254
Reska1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite53% won 71 of 133
Up 2–0, closes it100% 29 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it77% 50 of 65
Zeman1.91
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 28 of 58
Down 0–1, comes back39% 12 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back14% 2 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeReska5wins
AwayZeman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeReska60%3 of 5
AwayZeman60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Reska5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Reska4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S3Reska4Zeman6n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S4Reska4Zeman3n = 7Reska took 4 of 7
S5Reska2Zeman1n = 3Reska took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricReskaZemanR − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.036.5+0.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricReskaZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime232 / 464 vs 163 / 29150%56%232 / 464 vs 163 / 291Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match37.339.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ReskaReska 1.80/Zeman 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Reska · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Reska won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 27 · 18:40V. Reska—11714113K. Zeman—8111281
WAug 25 · 21:25V. Reska—871111113K. Zeman—11114362
LAug 25 · 19:45V. Reska—11731192K. Zeman—611118113
LAug 21 · 18:45V. Reska—711891K. Zeman—11511113
LAug 17 · 19:45V. Reska—118591K. Zeman—71111113
WAug 9 · 18:15V. Reska—111110123K. Zeman—9612101
LJul 16 · 21:04V. Reska—51190K. Zeman—1113113
WJul 16 · 18:40V. Reska—1111113K. Zeman—7570
LJul 10 · 21:15V. Reska—10930K. Zeman—1211113
WJul 10 · 19:15V. Reska—711116113K. Zeman—11281192
V. Reska10
WSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 11:40V. Reska1.61871181O. Skvor2.2011116113WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.83111178113J. Patrik1.8379111162WSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 4 · 16:35A. Kanak1.801211113V. Reska1.9110450LSep 4 · 16:10K. Baros1.611111113V. Reska2.205780LSep 4 · 15:10V. Reska2.1011115672J. Volny1.67981111113LSep 4 · 13:40A. Kanak1.679111110113V. Reska2.1011871272WSep 2 · 17:10V. Reska1.671111113O. Coufal2.105780
K. Zeman10
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113LAug 31 · 18:10P. Jokiel1.8371411113K. Zeman1.831112561WAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113LAug 30 · 20:15K. Zeman1.6191380J. Vanous2.201115113
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