TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13047190
Played Aug 30Finished
Karel Zeman
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 5
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
9111315811––––
Jiri Vanous
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 8Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 8
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:18 and never touched — 60.9% is still 60.9%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
60.9%
60.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingKarel Zeman above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 13-15
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 67 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Karel Zeman at 60.9%
67 points played in total.
H2H Karel Zeman 19–12 Jiri Vanous Jiri Vanous has won 12 of their 31 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:18What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
19-12 in 31
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 7 in 31, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Zeman 1401 vs Vanous 1345
Zeman
Wrong
both rated, 56 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Zeman 0% vs Vanous 0%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Zeman 40% vs Vanous 20%
Zeman
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Zeman -5 · Vanous -5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Zeman) · live re-read · sealed at 61% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Vanous form (0%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZeman 1.61 / Vanous 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Zeman)+1.2pp
TT Cup · #13047190
Zeman1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 61 of 112
Up 2–0, closes it88% 30 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it73% 48 of 66
Vanous2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 8
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog40% won 42 of 106
Down 0–1, comes back19% 10 of 53
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZeman7wins
AwayVanous3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZeman leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZeman85.7%6 of 7
AwayVanous66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zeman7Vanous3n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S2Zeman6Vanous4n = 10Zeman took 6 of 10
S3Zeman4Vanous6n = 10Vanous took 6 of 10
S4Zeman6Vanous2n = 8Zeman took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home550%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricZemanVanousZ − VBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.337.1+5.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZemanVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime164 / 294 vs 119 / 27455.8%43.4%164 / 294 vs 119 / 274Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.036.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanZeman 1.61/Vanous 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Vanous won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 30 · 20:45K. Zeman—11119113J. Vanous—661181
LAug 30 · 20:15K. Zeman—91380J. Vanous—1115113
WAug 25 · 19:15K. Zeman—11117113J. Vanous—971141
WJul 29 · 17:40K. Zeman—1111113J. Vanous—7670
WJul 16 · 18:10K. Zeman—111111173J. Vanous—9139151
WJul 10 · 17:45K. Zeman—121111113J. Vanous—1041351
WJul 7 · 19:15K. Zeman—1561111123J. Vanous—171186102
LJun 30 · 20:40K. Zeman—11109101J. Vanous—61211123
LJun 30 · 19:40K. Zeman—611119102J. Vanous—118611123
WJun 25 · 20:15K. Zeman—11118113J. Vanous—861181
K. Zeman10
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113LAug 31 · 18:10P. Jokiel1.8371411113K. Zeman1.831112561WAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113LAug 30 · 18:45V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111542
J. Vanous10
LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113WSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152LSep 2 · 17:40V. Molin1.5391111113J. Vanous2.38119851LSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113LAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113
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