TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051158
Played Aug 31Finished
Patrik Jokiel
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111412115116––
Karel Zeman
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeKarel Zeman to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingPatrik Jokiel above · Karel Zeman below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 14-12
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-6
Point 77 set 4, 11-6 — our read held Karel Zeman at 54.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Patrik Jokiel 6–8 Karel Zeman Patrik Jokiel has won 6 of their 14 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:54What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Zeman
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-8 in 14
Zeman
Wrong
gap of 2 in 14, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Jokiel 1416 vs Zeman 1401
Jokiel
Correct
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jokiel 20% vs Zeman 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jokiel 40% vs Zeman 30%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jokiel -1 · Zeman +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Zeman)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zeman form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJokiel 1.83 / Zeman 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Zeman)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13051158
Jokiel1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
Zeman1.83
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeJokiel5wins
AwayZeman5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeJokiel60%3 of 5
AwayZeman60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Jokiel5Zeman5n = 10split evenly
S2Jokiel6Zeman4n = 10Jokiel took 6 of 10
S3Jokiel3Zeman7n = 10Zeman took 7 of 10
S4Jokiel5Zeman2n = 7Jokiel took 5 of 7
S5Jokiel1Zeman2n = 3Zeman took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricJokielZemanJ − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match36.938.5−1.6per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricJokielZemanBasisWin rate · lifetime190 / 405 vs 164 / 29446.9%55.8%190 / 405 vs 164 / 294Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZemanJokiel 1.83/Zeman 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Zeman · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Jokiel won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 13 · 17:25P. Jokiel—12116113K. Zeman—1051161
LAug 13 · 14:15P. Jokiel—11711452K. Zeman—811811113
WJul 18 · 13:10P. Jokiel—111111113K. Zeman—651381
LJul 18 · 11:40P. Jokiel—1171091K. Zeman—71112113
LJul 12 · 15:15P. Jokiel—311411102K. Zeman—118117123
WJun 29 · 21:15P. Jokiel—1211113K. Zeman—10970
WJun 29 · 19:40P. Jokiel—911911123K. Zeman—116118102
WApr 5 · 14:45P. Jokiel—121111123K. Zeman—1489101
LDec 29 · 15:15P. Jokiel—41280K. Zeman—1114113
LDec 26 · 19:15P. Jokiel—6810K. Zeman—1111113
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482
K. Zeman10
WSep 1 · 21:08K. Zeman1.911111113O. Kus1.807670LSep 1 · 19:40O. Kus2.0011124113K. Zeman1.736101181WSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113WSep 1 · 18:10K. Zeman1.7381113123K. Przeczek2.0011711101LAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892LAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113WAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113WAug 30 · 20:45J. Vanous2.10661181K. Zeman1.6711119113LAug 30 · 20:15K. Zeman1.6191380J. Vanous2.201115113LAug 30 · 18:45V. Reska1.80125711113K. Zeman1.91101111542
Upcoming Matches
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K. Zeman
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