TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13055442
Played Aug 31Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
1.70
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119611115115––
Patrik Jokiel
Away
1.96
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:56 and never touched — 54.4% is still 54.4%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
54.4%
54.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Patrik Jokiel below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 69 set 4, 11-5 — our read held Filip Theodor at 54.4%
69 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 3–0 Patrik Jokiel Patrik Jokiel has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.70 (54%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Theodor
Correct
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1406 vs Jokiel 1421
Jokiel
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 60% vs Jokiel 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 80% vs Jokiel 40%
Theodor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +1 · Jokiel -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Theodor)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.70 / Jokiel 1.96
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Theodor)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13055442
Theodor1.70
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite35% won 9 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Jokiel1.96
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog51% won 79 of 156
Down 0–1, comes back38% 24 of 64
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 24
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeTheodor3wins
AwayJokiel0wins
2 of 3 to a deciderTheodor leads 3–0, and 2 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Theodor1Jokiel2n = 3Jokiel took 2 of 3
S2Theodor2Jokiel1n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S3Theodor2Jokiel1n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S4Theodor2Jokiel1n = 3Theodor took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home267%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricTheodorJokielT − JBasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match46.038.7+7.3per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorJokielBasisWin rate · lifetime73 / 163 vs 192 / 40844.8%47.1%73 / 163 vs 192 / 408Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.538.6per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.70/Jokiel 1.96
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.4%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor—4111011113P. Jokiel—11912482
WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor—117118113P. Jokiel—71171172
WFeb 5 · 18:45F. Theodor—101111113P. Jokiel—123591
F. Theodor10
LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113WAug 31 · 17:40F. Theodor1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.387650WAug 30 · 17:09O. Skvor1.578630F. Theodor2.251111113LAug 30 · 15:45F. Theodor2.00113741O. Skvor1.7371111113WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
P. Jokiel10
LSep 5 · 13:10P. Jokiel1.688380O. Skvor1.981111113WSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 10:40V. Reska1.85111178113P. Jokiel1.8579111162WSep 5 · 10:10O. Skvor1.65661281P. Jokiel1.98111110113LSep 4 · 21:15K. Przeczek1.50111111113P. Jokiel2.50713691WSep 4 · 19:40P. Jokiel2.25119311113V. Molin1.5751111972LSep 4 · 18:40P. Jokiel2.257690K. Przeczek1.571111113WSep 4 · 17:40P. Jokiel2.2511113113P. Chlad1.57981171LAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482LAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
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