TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13051159
Played Aug 31Finished
Filip Theodor
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
117116115––––
Tomas Ogrocki
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 06:54 and never touched — 68.0% is still 68.0%
Graded at full timeFilip Theodor to win
68.0%
68.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Theodor above · Tomas Ogrocki below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-5
Point 51 set 3, 11-5 — our read held Filip Theodor at 68.0%
51 points played in total.
H2H Filip Theodor 1–0 Tomas Ogrocki Tomas Ogrocki has won 0 of their 1 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 06:54What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Theodor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-0 in 1
—
Too close
1 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Theodor 1379 vs Ogrocki 1382
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 3 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Theodor 80% vs Ogrocki 20%
Theodor
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Theodor 70% vs Ogrocki 30%
Theodor
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Theodor +1 · Ogrocki +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Slight lean (leans Theodor) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Ogrocki form (20%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTheodor 1.53 / Ogrocki 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Theodor)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13051159
Theodor1.53
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite35% won 9 of 26
Up 2–0, closes it80% 4 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it75% 6 of 8
Ogrocki2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 58 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back27% 21 of 78
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 37
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 1 meeting
HomeTheodor1wins
AwayOgrocki0wins
Theodor leads 1–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in this 1 meetingevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How that 1 finishedn = 1, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away0
0–3Straight, away0
This 1 meeting
MetricTheodorOgrockiT − OBasisWins10+1in 1 meetingFirst set10+1of 1Avg pointsper match43.037.0+6.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTheodorOgrockiBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 160 vs 205 / 43844.4%46.8%71 / 160 vs 205 / 438Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TheodorTheodor 1.53/Ogrocki 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
61.6%
Theodor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Theodor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record1
WAug 30 · 13:45F. Theodor—11119123T. Ogrocki—8811101
F. Theodor10
LSep 3 · 21:18F. Theodor1.677811111K. Przeczek2.1011119133WSep 3 · 19:45O. Kus1.73671251F. Theodor2.00111110113WSep 3 · 19:15K. Przeczek1.806890F. Theodor1.911111113WSep 3 · 18:15F. Theodor1.911111113V. Molin1.805680WAug 31 · 21:10F. Theodor1.7011611113P. Jokiel1.96911551WAug 31 · 19:40F. Theodor1.574111011113P. Jokiel2.2511912482LAug 31 · 18:40F. Theodor2.00931161K. Zeman1.7311113113WAug 30 · 17:09O. Skvor1.578630F. Theodor2.251111113LAug 30 · 15:45F. Theodor2.00113741O. Skvor1.7371111113WAug 30 · 14:45F. Theodor1.83117118113P. Jokiel1.8371171172
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871LSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892
Upcoming Matches
F. Theodor
T. Ogrocki
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