TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13070115
Played Sep 3Finished
Tomas Ogrocki
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
711117311118611
Peter Chvojka
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 07:28 and never touched — 55.4% is still 55.4%
Graded at full timePeter Chvojka to win
55.4%
55.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingTomas Ogrocki above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 86 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Peter Chvojka at 55.4%
86 points played in total.
H2H Tomas Ogrocki 6–13 Peter Chvojka Tomas Ogrocki has won 6 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 07:28What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Chvojka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-13 in 19
Chvojka
Correct
gap of 7 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Ogrocki 1377 vs Chvojka 1276
Ogrocki
Wrong
both rated, 101 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Ogrocki 60% vs Chvojka 40%
Ogrocki
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Ogrocki 30% vs Chvojka 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Ogrocki +2 · Chvojka -3
Chvojka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chvojka) · live re-read · sealed at 55% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsOgrocki 2.00 / Chvojka 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Chvojka)+0.3pp
TT Cup · #13070115
Ogrocki2.00
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 59 of 136
Down 0–1, comes back28% 22 of 79
Down 0–2, comes back11% 4 of 38
Chvojka1.73
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite45% won 33 of 74
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeOgrocki3wins
AwayChvojka7wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChvojka leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeOgrocki60%3 of 5
AwayChvojka100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Ogrocki5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Ogrocki6Chvojka4n = 10Ogrocki took 6 of 10
S3Ogrocki5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S4Ogrocki3Chvojka5n = 8Chvojka took 5 of 8
S5Ogrocki0Chvojka3n = 3Chvojka took 3 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricOgrockiChvojkaO − CBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match35.437.8−2.4per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricOgrockiChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime207 / 442 vs 130 / 28546.8%45.6%207 / 442 vs 130 / 285Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match37.437.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChvojkaOgrocki 2.00/Chvojka 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chvojka · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 4 · 15:15T. Ogrocki—111110642P. Chvojka—891211113
WJul 20 · 20:45T. Ogrocki—1111113P. Chvojka—7980
WJul 20 · 19:15T. Ogrocki—11611113P. Chvojka—911841
LJul 2 · 20:45T. Ogrocki—6111061P. Chvojka—11912113
LJul 2 · 17:45T. Ogrocki—71181152P. Chvojka—119119113
WJun 25 · 19:45T. Ogrocki—1111113P. Chvojka—2320
LJun 14 · 15:40T. Ogrocki—771151P. Chvojka—11115113
LMay 16 · 15:45T. Ogrocki—691161P. Chvojka—11118113
LMay 14 · 18:15T. Ogrocki—711271P. Chvojka—11611113
LMay 9 · 07:45T. Ogrocki—12871152P. Chvojka—1011119113
T. Ogrocki10
LSep 5 · 12:40V. Reska1.5313127113T. Ogrocki2.3811101121LSep 5 · 12:10P. Jokiel1.82111111113T. Ogrocki1.78135891LSep 5 · 12:10J. Patrik1.73111111113T. Ogrocki2.00135891LSep 5 · 11:10T. Ogrocki2.2513135101O. Skvor1.57111511123LSep 5 · 09:40V. Reska1.531111113T. Ogrocki2.388690LSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242WSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561WSep 3 · 18:40T. Ogrocki1.6112111113O. Vaclahovsky2.201011871WAug 31 · 20:40T. Ogrocki2.50611811113K. Zeman1.5011511892WAug 31 · 20:10K. Zeman1.445880T. Ogrocki2.631111113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
Upcoming Matches
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P. Chvojka
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