TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13077395
Played Sep 4Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
8111210118411119
Peter Chvojka
Away
2.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:47 and never touched — 57.6% is still 57.6%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
57.6%
57.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 4-11
Set 5 · 11-9
Point 95 set 5, 11-9 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 57.6%
95 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 7–6 Peter Chvojka Peter Chvojka has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 12:47What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Lorenc
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1471 vs Chvojka 1265
Lorenc
Correct
both rated, 206 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 60% vs Chvojka 20%
Lorenc
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 50% vs Chvojka 30%
Lorenc
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc -2 · Chvojka -3
Chvojka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Lorenc) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (20%) is below what odds imply (44%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.57 / Chvojka 2.25
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Lorenc)+0.0pp
TT Cup · #13077395
Lorenc1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite41% won 16 of 39
Up 2–0, closes it100% 6 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it60% 9 of 15
Chvojka2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeLorenc5wins
AwayChvojka5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc80%4 of 5
AwayChvojka80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc5Chvojka5n = 10split evenly
S2Lorenc4Chvojka6n = 10Chvojka took 6 of 10
S3Lorenc6Chvojka4n = 10Lorenc took 6 of 10
S4Lorenc3Chvojka5n = 8Chvojka took 5 of 8
S5Lorenc3Chvojka2n = 5Lorenc took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricLorencChvojkaL − CBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match39.042.7−3.7per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime56 / 132 vs 133 / 29342.4%45.4%56 / 132 vs 133 / 293Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.937.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.57/Chvojka 2.25
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Lorenc won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc—812114113P. Chvojka—111081192
WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc—1111143P. Chvojka—67120
WAug 28 · 17:23M. Lorenc—11211113P. Chvojka—811971
LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc—6111091P. Chvojka—11312113
WAug 10 · 09:45M. Lorenc—111158113P. Chvojka—99111192
LJul 9 · 12:50M. Lorenc—5450P. Chvojka—1111113
LJul 9 · 09:45M. Lorenc—1112641P. Chvojka—71411113
LMay 30 · 10:40M. Lorenc—251113102P. Chvojka—1111311123
WMay 16 · 17:25M. Lorenc—124118123P. Chvojka—1011711102
LMay 16 · 14:45M. Lorenc—1311111382P. Chvojka—1513911113
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191LAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 14:40M. Lorenc1.736111091P. Chvojka2.0011312113
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