TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13034913
Played Aug 28Finished
Martin Lorenc
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
6111131012911––
Peter Chvojka
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
2–8Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 09:51 and never touched — 54.1% is still 54.1%
Graded at full timeMartin Lorenc to win
54.1%
54.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMartin Lorenc above · Peter Chvojka below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 10-12
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 73 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Martin Lorenc at 54.1%
73 points played in total.
H2H Martin Lorenc 4–5 Peter Chvojka Martin Lorenc has won 4 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 09:51What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Lorenc
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-5 in 9
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Lorenc 1471 vs Chvojka 1263
Lorenc
Wrong
both rated, 209 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Lorenc 40% vs Chvojka 0%
Lorenc
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Lorenc 50% vs Chvojka 20%
Lorenc
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Lorenc +1 · Chvojka -5
Chvojka
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Lorenc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chvojka form (0%) is below what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsLorenc 1.73 / Chvojka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Lorenc)+0.4pp
TT Cup · #13034913
Lorenc1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite37% won 14 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it100% 5 of 5
Up 1–0, closes it57% 8 of 14
Chvojka2.00
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back19% 11 of 57
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 31
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeLorenc4wins
AwayChvojka5wins
5 of 9 to a deciderChvojka leads 5–4, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeLorenc60%3 of 5
AwayChvojka75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Lorenc5Chvojka4n = 9Lorenc took 5 of 9
S2Lorenc2Chvojka7n = 9Chvojka took 7 of 9
S3Lorenc4Chvojka5n = 9Chvojka took 5 of 9
S4Lorenc4Chvojka4n = 8split evenly
S5Lorenc3Chvojka2n = 5Lorenc took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home333%
2–3Decider, away222%
1–3Four sets, away222%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricLorencChvojkaL − CBasisWins45−1in 9 meetingsFirst set54+1of 9Avg pointsper match39.944.6−4.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricLorencChvojkaBasisWin rate · lifetime52 / 125 vs 126 / 27641.6%45.7%52 / 125 vs 126 / 276Avg sets wonper match1.81.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LorencLorenc 1.73/Chvojka 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Lorenc · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chvojka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WAug 10 · 09:45M. Lorenc—111158113P. Chvojka—99111192
LJul 9 · 12:50M. Lorenc—5450P. Chvojka—1111113
LJul 9 · 09:45M. Lorenc—1112641P. Chvojka—71411113
LMay 30 · 10:40M. Lorenc—251113102P. Chvojka—1111311123
WMay 16 · 17:25M. Lorenc—124118123P. Chvojka—1011711102
LMay 16 · 14:45M. Lorenc—1311111382P. Chvojka—1513911113
WMay 1 · 12:45M. Lorenc—8101111113P. Chvojka—11126792
LMay 1 · 12:10M. Lorenc—119831P. Chvojka—81111113
WFeb 8 · 09:10M. Lorenc—11117113P. Chvojka—681191
M. Lorenc10
LSep 5 · 17:14M. Lorenc1.44713551O. Skvor2.63111111113WSep 5 · 16:10M. Lorenc1.8012911113J. Sindler1.911011571WSep 5 · 14:40D. Stefek1.913211131M. Lorenc1.8011115153WSep 5 · 14:10O. Skvor1.91111171292M. Lorenc1.80891114113WSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:45M. Lorenc1.731011991O. Vaclahovsky2.0012711113WSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113WAug 28 · 15:40M. Lorenc1.8013116113J. Jnr1.911181191
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 28 · 17:23P. Chvojka1.71811971M. Lorenc2.0011211113
Upcoming Matches
M. Lorenc
Nothing scheduled
P. Chvojka
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