TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13073762
Played Sep 4Finished
Peter Chvojka
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
711116911911––
Jan Sevecek
Away
1.73
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:18 and never touched — 61.6% is still 61.6%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
61.6%
61.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPeter Chvojka above · Jan Sevecek below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 75 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 61.6%
75 points played in total.
H2H Peter Chvojka 1–1 Jan Sevecek Dead even across their 2 meetings.
Last 2 · 1–1Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:18What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Sevecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
1-1 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Chvojka 1301 vs Sevecek 1450
Sevecek
Correct
both rated, 149 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chvojka 60% vs Sevecek 40%
Chvojka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chvojka 50% vs Sevecek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chvojka -1 · Sevecek -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Sevecek) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Sevecek form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChvojka 2.00 / Sevecek 1.73
Signal prob.46% / 55%
Edge (Sevecek)+0.8pp
TT Cup · #13073762
Chvojka2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog37% won 39 of 105
Down 0–1, comes back18% 10 of 55
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 32
Sevecek1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 44 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeChvojka1wins
AwaySevecek1wins
Level at 1–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home1
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away0
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricChvojkaSevecekC − SBasisWins110in 2 meetingsFirst set110of 2Avg pointsper match34.536.0−1.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChvojkaSevecekBasisWin rate · lifetime133 / 290 vs 78 / 13445.9%58.2%133 / 290 vs 78 / 134Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.340.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekChvojka 2.00/Sevecek 1.73
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.5%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sevecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LAug 24 · 06:45P. Chvojka—414771J. Sevecek—111211113
WAug 12 · 05:45P. Chvojka—11114113J. Sevecek—551161
P. Chvojka10
LSep 4 · 12:50M. Lorenc1.57812114113P. Chvojka2.25111081192LSep 4 · 12:15O. Vaclahovsky1.80111192113P. Chvojka1.9179111192LSep 4 · 09:45M. Lorenc1.731111143P. Chvojka2.0067120WSep 3 · 21:13P. Chvojka1.739111110113T. Ogrocki2.0011891242LSep 3 · 20:10O. Vaclahovsky1.731011611113P. Chvojka2.0012811762WSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 17:40T. Ogrocki2.0071131162P. Chvojka1.73117118113LSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LAug 31 · 23:40O. Vaclahovsky1.801112117113P. Chvojka1.91910131172LAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 28 · 05:40J. Sevecek1.538790J. Matus2.381111113LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80111175113J. Sindler1.9194111162
Upcoming Matches
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