TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032150
Played Aug 28Finished
Jan Sevecek
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811711911––––
Jiri Matus
Away
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:41 and never touched — 64.3% is still 64.3%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
64.3%
64.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingJan Sevecek above · Jiri Matus below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 57 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 64.3%
57 points played in total.
H2H Jan Sevecek 3–3 Jiri Matus Dead even across their 6 meetings.
Last 6 · 3–3Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:41What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Sevecek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-3 in 6
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sevecek 1474 vs Matus 1287
Sevecek
Wrong
both rated, 187 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sevecek 80% vs Matus 0%
Sevecek
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sevecek 60% vs Matus 30%
Sevecek
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sevecek -1 · Matus -5
Matus
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Sevecek) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Matus form (0%) is below what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSevecek 1.53 / Matus 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Sevecek)+2.8pp
TT Cup · #13032150
Sevecek1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite59% won 42 of 71
Up 2–0, closes it96% 23 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it76% 31 of 41
Matus2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 23 of 54
Down 0–1, comes back30% 8 of 27
Down 0–2, comes back17% 2 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomeSevecek3wins
AwayMatus3wins
2 of 6 to a deciderLevel at 3–3, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSevecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayMatus66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sevecek3Matus3n = 6split evenly
S2Sevecek3Matus3n = 6split evenly
S3Sevecek2Matus4n = 6Matus took 4 of 6
S4Sevecek5Matus0n = 5Sevecek took 5 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home350%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away233%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away117%
These 6 meetings
MetricSevecekMatusS − MBasisWins330in 6 meetingsFirst set330of 6Avg pointsper match40.239.7+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSevecekMatusBasisWin rate · lifetime76 / 129 vs 201 / 39058.9%51.5%76 / 129 vs 201 / 390Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekSevecek 1.53/Matus 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
63.6%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Matus won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WAug 26 · 05:40J. Sevecek—11614113J. Matus—8111271
WJul 20 · 13:14J. Sevecek—91111113J. Matus—115661
LJul 20 · 10:15J. Sevecek—115711112J. Matus—911119133
LJun 22 · 14:10J. Sevecek—91190J. Matus—1113113
LJun 16 · 09:15J. Sevecek—711511112J. Matus—115117133
WJun 16 · 07:45J. Sevecek—11115113J. Matus—991181
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80111175113J. Sindler1.9194111162
J. Matus10
WSep 1 · 17:15P. Sturma—3790J. Matus—1111113LSep 1 · 16:15P. Sturma1.9191211113J. Matus1.801110851WSep 1 · 15:15J. Matus1.8011119113L. Jr1.91841191WSep 1 · 13:45J. Jnr1.91111291182J. Matus1.801310117113WSep 1 · 01:10P. Chvojka1.577480J. Matus2.251111113LSep 1 · 24:10J. Matus1.7381111562J. Jnr2.00118311113WAug 31 · 16:45J. Matus1.9111119113P. Chvojka1.80961181LAug 31 · 13:40O. Vaclahovsky1.50118411113J. Matus2.5091111372WAug 29 · 21:10R. Jancak1.6888111182J. Matus1.98111178113LAug 29 · 19:40J. Matus2.1062180R. Jancak1.671111203
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