TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13032722
Played Aug 28Finished
Jan Sevecek
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1191194117111311
Adam Strelec
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:00 and never touched — 63.3% is still 63.3%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
63.3%
63.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJan Sevecek above · Adam Strelec below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 4-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Set 5 · 13-11
Point 97 set 5, 13-11 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 63.3%
97 points played in total.
H2H Jan Sevecek 4–1 Adam Strelec Adam Strelec has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:00What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Sevecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Sevecek
Correct
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sevecek 1466 vs Strelec 1332
Sevecek
Correct
both rated, 134 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sevecek 60% vs Strelec 40%
Sevecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sevecek 60% vs Strelec 40%
Sevecek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sevecek +1 · Strelec +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Sevecek) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSevecek 1.50 / Strelec 2.50
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Sevecek)+4.0pp
TT Cup · #13032722
Sevecek1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 44 of 75
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it74% 32 of 43
Strelec2.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 33 of 72
Down 0–1, comes back24% 9 of 37
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSevecek4wins
AwayStrelec1wins
2 of 5 to a deciderSevecek leads 4–1, and 2 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSevecek66.7%2 of 3
AwayStrelecn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sevecek3Strelec2n = 5Sevecek took 3 of 5
S2Sevecek4Strelec1n = 5Sevecek took 4 of 5
S3Sevecek1Strelec4n = 5Strelec took 4 of 5
S4Sevecek3Strelec2n = 5Sevecek took 3 of 5
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home240%
3–2Decider, home240%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricSevecekStrelecSevecek − StrelecBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set32+1of 5Avg pointsper match41.839.8+2.0per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSevecekStrelecBasisWin rate · lifetime78 / 133 vs 100 / 20658.7%48.5%78 / 133 vs 100 / 206Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekSevecek 1.50/Strelec 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.5%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Sevecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek—111147133A. Strelec—991111112
WAug 22 · 09:40J. Sevecek—71114113A. Strelec—1121221
WAug 17 · 09:20J. Sevecek—11118113A. Strelec—971191
LAug 17 · 07:40J. Sevecek—1151051A. Strelec—81112113
WJul 8 · 06:45J. Sevecek—611911113A. Strelec—11911572
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 28 · 05:40J. Sevecek1.538790J. Matus2.381111113LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80111175113J. Sindler1.9194111162
A. Strelec10
WSep 7 · 06:45A. Strelec2.0011912113T. Slivka1.735111071WSep 7 · 05:45A. Strelec2.3811114113F. Mandrysz1.53671131LSep 2 · 09:25A. Strelec2.10711111072P. Chlad1.65119812113LSep 2 · 08:10A. Strelec1.67913111162L. Snr2.101111137113WSep 2 · 06:40P. Chlad1.6788111192A. Strelec2.10111197113WSep 2 · 06:10J. Sindler1.80139513102A. Strelec1.9111111111123WSep 1 · 08:43J. Sindler1.838111151A. Strelec1.8311139113LSep 1 · 07:40J. Sindler1.7311117113A. Strelec2.00891181LSep 1 · 07:10F. Mandrysz1.671111113A. Strelec2.109460WSep 1 · 06:10A. Strelec1.8311711113L. Snr1.83911491
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A. Strelec
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