TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13015541
Played Aug 26Finished
Jan Sevecek
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
118119112––––
Ivan Jemelka
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJan Sevecek to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightpick shipped
How it is goingJan Sevecek above · Ivan Jemelka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 11-2
Point 52 set 3, 11-2 — our read held Jan Sevecek at 54.0%
52 points played in total.
H2H Jan Sevecek 2–3 Ivan Jemelka Jan Sevecek has won 2 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 22:21What took a side2 for · 1 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Sevecek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-3 in 5
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sevecek 1450 vs Jemelka 1442
Sevecek
Correct
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sevecek 80% vs Jemelka 100%
Jemelka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sevecek 70% vs Jemelka 80%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sevecek +3 · Jemelka +5
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as .
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Sevecek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jemelka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSevecek 1.80 / Jemelka 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Sevecek)+2.5pp
TT Cup · #13015541
Sevecek1.80
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite58% won 39 of 67
Up 2–0, closes it96% 21 of 22
Up 1–0, closes it74% 28 of 38
Jemelka1.91
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog58% won 19 of 33
Down 0–1, comes back27% 4 of 15
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 6
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeSevecek2wins
AwayJemelka3wins
1 of 5 to a deciderJemelka leads 3–2, and 1 of those 5 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSevecekn = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayJemelka100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sevecek2Jemelka3n = 5Jemelka took 3 of 5
S2Sevecek1Jemelka4n = 5Jemelka took 4 of 5
S3Sevecek3Jemelka2n = 5Sevecek took 3 of 5
S4Sevecek1Jemelka3n = 4Jemelka took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home120%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away240%
0–3Straight, away120%
These 5 meetings
MetricSevecekJemelkaS − JBasisWins23−1in 5 meetingsFirst set23−1of 5Avg pointsper match35.635.8−0.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSevecekJemelkaBasisWin rate · lifetime75 / 127 vs 44 / 9459.1%46.8%75 / 127 vs 44 / 94Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.236.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SevecekSevecek 1.80/Jemelka 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Sevecek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Sevecek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
LAug 24 · 07:45J. Sevecek—751161I. Jemelka—11114113
WAug 20 · 06:40J. Sevecek—141167113I. Jemelka—123111152
LAug 12 · 06:45J. Sevecek—89100I. Jemelka—1111123
LJun 23 · 09:30J. Sevecek—751191I. Jemelka—11113113
WJun 23 · 06:15J. Sevecek—12711113I. Jemelka—1011271
J. Sevecek10
WSep 4 · 13:20O. Vaclahovsky1.7710980J. Sevecek1.871211113WSep 4 · 11:45M. Lorenc2.0061111592J. Sevecek1.73117611113WSep 4 · 11:15P. Chvojka2.00711991J. Sevecek1.7311611113LSep 4 · 10:15J. Sevecek1.73115781O. Vaclahovsky2.0071111113LAug 28 · 09:08J. Sevecek1.8011118792J. Sindler1.91691111113WAug 28 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.50111147133A. Strelec2.50991111112WAug 28 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80711911113J. Sindler1.9111711992LAug 28 · 05:40J. Sevecek1.538790J. Matus2.381111113LAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 06:40J. Sevecek1.80111175113J. Sindler1.9194111162
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090LSep 5 · 18:40I. Jemelka2.38811961J. Vanous1.5311711113WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113WAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2.0074100I. Jemelka1.731111123
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