TT Lossbeater/TT Cup
TT CupMatch #13082045
Played Sep 5Finished
Ivan Jemelka
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811117911611––
Jiri Vanous
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 10:10 and never touched — 61.7% is still 61.7%
Graded at full timeJiri Vanous to win
61.7%
61.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingIvan Jemelka above · Jiri Vanous below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 74 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Jiri Vanous at 61.7%
74 points played in total.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 10:10What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Vanous
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
No meetings
—
No value
they have never met
Rating (G2)
Jemelka 1381 vs Vanous 1403
Vanous
Correct
both rated, 22 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Jemelka 40% vs Vanous 60%
Vanous
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Jemelka 60% vs Vanous 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Jemelka +1 · Vanous +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Vanous) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsJemelka 2.38 / Vanous 1.53
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Vanous)-2.8pp (anti-value)
TT Cup · #13082045
Jemelka2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog57% won 21 of 37
Down 0–1, comes back29% 5 of 17
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 7
Vanous1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite54% won 27 of 50
Up 2–0, closes it94% 16 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it73% 22 of 30
Head to head
H2H window
First meeting
These two have never played each other. It is not a loading failure: there is no history. The career card below still stands — it is the only comparison available.
Career, not this matchup
MetricJemelkaVanousBasisWin rate · lifetime47 / 101 vs 124 / 28346.5%43.8%47 / 101 vs 124 / 283Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.536.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VanousJemelka 2.38/Vanous 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58%
Vanous · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Vanous won
Total sets · Score
These two have never met.
The three history tabs read the same head-to-head record, so they go down together — one message, not three empty cards. The three forecast tabs are unaffected and stay open.
Recent Results
I. Jemelka10
WSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 19:40I. Jemelka2.001112113D. Stefek1.7391090WSep 5 · 17:40I. Jemelka2.101812113R. Benesz1.67161070LSep 3 · 20:44I. Jemelka1.8391191192O. Vaclahovsky1.83115116113LSep 3 · 19:40T. Ogrocki1.8031611113I. Jemelka1.911114561LSep 3 · 19:10P. Chvojka2.001110118113I. Jemelka1.7321231152WSep 3 · 18:10I. Jemelka2.101011712113O. Vaclahovsky1.67126111052WAug 26 · 09:13J. Sevecek1.50612451I. Jemelka2.50111011113LAug 26 · 07:40J. Sevecek1.801111113I. Jemelka1.918920WAug 26 · 07:10J. Matus2.0074100I. Jemelka1.731111123
J. Vanous10
LSep 5 · 21:10J. Vanous1.73721113112I. Jemelka1.911111911133WSep 5 · 20:10J. Vanous1.61111111113R. Benesz2.20813561WSep 5 · 18:10D. Stefek2.006490J. Vanous1.731111113LSep 2 · 21:10J. Vanous1.8011910101M. Janik1.9131112123WSep 2 · 20:10O. Skvor1.537690J. Vanous2.381111113WSep 2 · 19:10J. Vanous2.10611119113M. Janik1.6711891152LSep 2 · 17:40V. Molin1.5391111113J. Vanous2.38119851LSep 1 · 20:40J. Vanous2.0067171182K. Przeczek1.731111157113WSep 1 · 20:10K. Przeczek1.617580J. Vanous2.201111113LSep 1 · 19:10J. Vanous2.205650K. Zeman1.611111113
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